White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Iran War Prediction Markets

The White House issued a formal warning to its staff on March 24, cautioning them against using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets.

The warning came a day after President Trump announced a five-day pause on his threat to attack Iranian power plants.

BBC

More than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands within two minutes before the announcement.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC that any implication of insider trading is baseless and irresponsible reporting.

The email stated it is a criminal offense to use nonpublic information for trading.

The warning followed a series of suspiciously timed trades that raised eyebrows.

About 15 minutes before Trump's announcement, contracts worth over $760 million were executed in the crude oil futures market.

BBC

Three accounts on Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on the timing of the Iran ceasefire.

Similar incidents earlier in the year involved bets on the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The timing of these trades intensified scrutiny of prediction markets.

Democratic lawmakers have pushed legislation to ban prediction markets related to war entirely.

“- Published White House staff were warned last month not to use insider information to place bets on predictions markets”

BBC

Senator Andy Kim called the situation a breeding ground for corruption and exploitation.

The White House insisted there's no evidence of leaks.

The rapid growth of prediction markets has introduced a new channel for monetizing geopolitical developments.

This has raised questions about transparency, fairness, and regulation.