2026 NFL free agency: Judging overreactions to deals, trades

J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. are described as done as starting quarterbacks, with McCarthy coming off a terrible and injury-plagued first NFL season after missing his entire rookie year due to a knee injury, and Penix opening 2025 as the Falcons' starter but missing the final eight games with a torn ACL in his left knee.

“You know we love our overreactions”

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The Vikings signed Kyler Murray and the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa, thrusting those veterans into ostensible competitions with the 10th and eighth overall picks from the 2024 draft, respectively.

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Murray missed 12 games last season and the Cardinals released him with $36.8 million in guaranteed money left, while Tagovailoa was benched with three games left in the season and the Dolphins cut him with $54 million in guaranteed money left.

Combined, the teams that drafted these two players are paying them $90.8 million to not play for them, and neither appears ready at quarterback.

The article notes Murray could start ahead of McCarthy unless McCarthy performs well in the summer, while the Falcons view Penix as the starter once healthy and Tagovailoa as insurance in case he isn’t ready.

Verdict: OVERREACTION.

Mike Tomlin stepped away from the Steelers in January, and Pittsburgh famously has not finished a season with a losing record in his 19 years.

The team finished 2025 at 10-7 and has added wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., cornerback Jamel Dean, and running back Rico Dowdle, while losing running back Kenneth Gainwell and guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency, with quarterback issues still unaddressed.

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Many around the league expect Aaron Rodgers to decide to return and play for Pittsburgh, a factor in evaluating their immediate outlook.

The article says this isn’t an overreaction to predict a first losing season since 2003, because the Steelers’ win totals have been near the same and they lack a meaningful quarterback solution since Roethlisberger.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION.

Kenneth Walker III is projected to be the No. 1 RB in fantasy for 2026 after his postseason surge with Seattle and a big new contract with the Chiefs.

“You know we love our overreactions”

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Isiah Pacheco, who had been the nominal starting running back in Kansas City the past few years, left in free agency to join the Lions, and the Chiefs also signed Emari Demercado while Brashard Smith remains in the mix, leaving Walker poised to lead Kansas City's backfield.

But the piece argues this is an overreaction: Andy Reid’s offense will be pass-heavy first and foremost, Mahomes could be slow to return from his season-ending knee injury, Walker’s injury history and past timeshare with Zach Charbonnet reduce the likelihood of him becoming an every-down back, and Kansas City may not rely on him as heavily as a top fantasy back.

Verdict: OVERREACTION.

Los Angeles is again positioned as a favorite, with the Rams looking like one of the league’s best teams for 2026 after nearly claiming the Super Bowl title in 2025.

They’ve added starting cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson and have not spent much in free agency otherwise, while still potentially upgrading at wide receiver and other spots.

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The division should be brutal again with Seattle and San Francisco, but the article says this isn’t a stretch and that L.A. could capitalize on a still-open window with Stafford’s health and a continued win-now mindset.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION.