Crypto03 April, 20261 min read
Bitcoin Profit Supply Nears Bear-Market Levels as Losses Rise
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Around 11.1–11.2 million BTC remain in profit; about 8.2–8.9 million are in loss. Bear-market conditions emerge as profit-supply contracts while losses rise.
On-Chain Metrics Shift
Bitcoin's on-chain profit-and-loss metrics are edging toward bear market thresholds. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported about 11.2 million BTC remain in profit. Loss-making supply climbed to approximately 8.2 million BTC, not seen since late 2022.
Analyst Debate
Some analysts interpreted the metrics as signaling undervaluation. Others cautioned the data reflects increasing market stress rather than an immediate bottom. Bitcoin price has declined about 52% from its cycle high.
Convergence Indicator
CoinDesk highlighted the profit-loss convergence indicator that has identified bottoms in every cycle. Currently, 11.1 million BTC are in profit and 8.9 million in loss. A convergence would imply a spot price near $60,000.
Market Sentiment and External Factors
Bitcoin tends to struggle when the dollar is strong. No notable demand was showing in spot and futures markets. The current market context resembles the ends of bull markets in early 2018 and 2022.