Cathie Wood predicts oil could crash 50% even as Strait of Hormuz crisis shakes markets amid Iran war
Key Takeaways
- Oil prices rose above $100 amid Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iran-war fears.
- WTI futures traded around $78–$80 before the conflict intensified.
- Cathie Wood forecast oil could crash 50% despite market turmoil.
Hormuz crisis triggers price spike
The Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered a swift disruption in global energy markets, with benchmark crude prices, including West Texas Intermediate and Brent, surging above $100 as traders feared a major supply shock.
“The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran shook global energy markets and triggered one of the most dramatic oil price swings of the year”
Before the conflict intensified, WTI traded around $78–$80 per barrel in late February, but the escalation pushed prices higher.
The waterway carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, and Iran warned it could block the passage and attack tankers, while attacks on Gulf energy facilities raised fears of sustained disruption.
Ruwais Refinery and Bahrain’s refining network connected to Bapco Energies reportedly suffered damage during the escalating hostilities.
Trump remarks calm markets
Donald Trump suggested the conflict could soon de-escalate.
Following those remarks, crude markets quickly pulled back.
As of March 11, WTI crude traded near $86 per barrel, while Brent hovered around $91, still above pre-conflict levels but significantly below the war-driven peak.
Wood's long-term outlook and diversification
Cathie Wood argues that long-term energy demand trends could reshape oil supply.
“The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran shook global energy markets and triggered one of the most dramatic oil price swings of the year”
In a video published by ARK Invest, she said rapid adoption of electric vehicles and autonomous transportation could reduce the global need for fossil fuels.
Wood believes that this transition will eventually push oil prices far below current levels.
According to her forecast, crude prices could fall to the low $50 range per barrel or even below within five to ten years, representing roughly a 50% decline from today’s oil prices near $90 per barrel.
Electric vehicles and autonomous mobility could drive long-term decline in oil demand.
The global shift toward electrification represents one of the most significant structural changes facing the energy sector.
Governments and automakers worldwide continue to invest heavily in electric transportation technology.
Wood also pointed to possible long-term geopolitical changes within Iran, describing its young and highly educated population as a potential force for economic transformation in the region.
Oil-producing countries in the Middle East have launched investment programs aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuel exports, including AI, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.
Nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have led these diversification efforts.
Market ripple across assets and inflation
Oil price volatility affects global inflation, crypto markets, and safe-haven assets.
During the early phase of the conflict, more than 153,000 crypto traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching about $517 million.
Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, briefly touching $73,669 before pulling back, Ethereum traded near $2,023, and Solana hovered around $85.
Gold initially surged to $5,392 per ounce, its highest level in over a month, before easing slightly as market fears cooled.
Cathie Wood says the current oil crisis may be a short-term shock in a transforming energy system.