Experts Warn Iran War Could Raise U.S. Gasoline Prices

Experts warned that the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has already pushed crude and gasoline prices higher and could raise U.S. gasoline prices further if the conflict prolongs, with one economist saying that a sustained rise to $90–$100 per barrel would be a "significant headwind for the global economy."

“Louis Jacobson, PolitiFactLouis Jacobson, PolitiFact Leave your feedback When President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address in late February, he pointed to his efforts to reduce the price of a key consumer product: gasoline”

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Short-term disruptions and damage to refining and processing facilities could lengthen elevated prices, while President Trump acknowledged the possibility of "a little high oil prices for a little while" before they fall, expressing confidence they would drop once the fighting ends.

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Market data recorded a quick jump in international and retail prices: Brent crude rose from $70.77 per barrel on Feb. 24 to $81.73 by March 4 — a roughly 15% increase — and U.S. pump prices moved in tandem, with GasBuddy reporting a national average of $3.19 per gallon on March 4, up from $2.94 three days earlier.

Analysts noted that this rise erased the gasoline-price gains claimed by the president since his January 2025 inauguration.

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Several structural and logistical factors are amplifying price risks: about one-fifth of the world's oil transits the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian media reported the country had closed the strait and warned vessels they "would be targeted."

“Louis Jacobson, PolitiFactLouis Jacobson, PolitiFact Leave your feedback When President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address in late February, he pointed to his efforts to reduce the price of a key consumer product: gasoline”

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Major shippers reacted by suspending crossings, with Maersk announcing it was "suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice," while attacks and threats have driven up insurers' costs for shipping through the region.

U.S. policy tools to blunt price increases are limited and politicized: the president can encourage more domestic drilling, release crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or order naval escorts, but those moves face timing, capacity or political constraints.

The PBS account notes Trump has encouraged more drilling, criticized Biden's use of the SPR, pledged as a candidate to refill the reserve rather than drain it, and said he ordered a federal agency to provide "political risk insurance" for maritime energy shipments at a "very reasonable price."

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Outlooks hinge on duration: analysts say if the situation calms quickly price impacts will be modest, but prolonged disruptions would push prices substantially higher.

“Louis Jacobson, PolitiFactLouis Jacobson, PolitiFact Leave your feedback When President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address in late February, he pointed to his efforts to reduce the price of a key consumer product: gasoline”

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Experts pointed out crude accounts for roughly half the cost of gasoline, meaning sustained barrel-price shocks would translate significantly to pump prices; GasBuddy projected a short-term national average of $3.30–$3.35 per gallon, while analysts warned the longer the disruptions continue the greater the burden on U.S. consumers.

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