
Gulf Unity Frays as Iran-Israel-U.S War Enters Second Month
Key Takeaways
- US and Iran reach a two-week ceasefire after threats of massive attacks.
- Gulf states fracture over escalation versus restraint as the crisis broadens.
- Iran's retaliatory campaign targets U.S. bases and civilian infrastructure.
Gulf Strains
As the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran crossed its fifth week, the Gulf region's wartime unity was unraveling.
The Gulf Cooperation Council found its solidarity tested as some members weighed deeper involvement while others pushed for restraint.

Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was attacked nine times.
More than 60 commercial ships were still trapped from Dubai to the Red Sea.
The Strait of Hormuz remained under de facto closure despite official declarations otherwise.
Economic Vulnerabilities
Economic vulnerabilities went beyond oil exports to broader infrastructure.
Dubai's airport saw traffic plunge by more than 90%.

Power outages and water shortages affected millions across the region.
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil trade.
Egypt-Gulf Tensions
Egypt's war posture emerged as perhaps the region's thorniest fault line.
Egypt had cultivated close ties with the Gulf monarchies, receiving tens of billions in support since the 2013 coup.
By early April, Gulf capitals were privately expressing discontent and suspicion over Cairo's approach.
Foreign Policy described Gulf-Egypt relations as fragmenting.
Israel's Expanding Footprint
Netanyahu shifted from viewing Lebanon as the sole front to expanding the geography of pressure.
Operation To The Ends of the Earth strikes targeted Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Iraq.
These included attacks disrupting Iranian oil and gas shipments to world markets.
Diplomatic Fraying
At the three-week mark, 15 Gulf countries and others issued a nonbinding Iran shipping resolution.
The effort faced hurdles with the veto powers of China and Russia.

Ankara emerged as an active interlocutor.
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