Markets Surge Then Waver as Iran-US Ceasefire Unravels in Days
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin surged toward $72,000 on ceasefire news, then pulled back.
- Ether rose to roughly $2,200–$2,270 as crypto markets climbed.
- Oil rose near $97 and the euro strengthened amid ceasefire optimism.
Ceasefire Sparks Rally
Global markets surged when the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, but the optimism proved short-lived as fissures appeared within 48 hours.
“Bitcoin under $71,000, ETH, SOL, XRP drop as Iran ceasefire frays within 48 hours of being signed Tehran says three clauses of the ceasefire have been breached, oil is rebounding toward $97, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite the deal”
Bitcoin climbed as much as 5% to $72,841, its highest level since March 18, before retreating.
Brent crude plunged 13.9%, reflecting hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen though that reopening has not materialized.
Iran's Parliament Speaker said three clauses of the ceasefire had been breached, and Israeli attacks continued in Lebanon.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Despite the ceasefire deal, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through.
Brent crude rebounded over 2% the morning after the market reacted violently to the Strait's closure.
Iran's Foreign Minister said the US brought this war upon itself by launching aggression.
Cryptos Ride the Waves
Cryptocurrencies rallied sharply as the ceasefire was announced, with Bitcoin gaining 4.3% and Ethereum rising 6%.
“Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a fragile truce, with over $16”
Altcoins outpaced Bitcoin, as Zcash surged 23% and AI-sector tokens posted strong gains.
Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF began trading on NYSE Arca, generating $34 million in first-day volume.
Nearly $650 million in crypto futures were liquidated within 24 hours due to a massive short squeeze.
Rising Doubts and Renewed Risk
The ceasefire unraveled as Iran's Parliament Speaker said three clauses had been breached and Israeli attacks continued.
Markets began retracing gains, and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% but still up 6.1% on the week.
Economic Ripples and Debt
The ceasefire sent reverberations through economic and financial markets beyond crypto and oil.
U.S. Treasury bond prices rose due to bets that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting rates after oil prices fell.
Moody's warned that the Gulf region's credit risk could rise further despite the ceasefire.
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