Montreal Canadiens Face Tampa Bay Lightning In First Round As Playoffs Begin Saturday

The first-round NHL playoff matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and the Tampa Bay Lightning is officially set, with the teams set to square off as the playoffs begin Saturday, according to Vernon Matters.

“Final Postseason Bracket Predictions 5 Days from the 2026 NHL Playoffs We are less than a week away from the start of the 2025-26 Stanley Cup playoffs, and things are starting to get settled”

Bleacher Report

The matchup was locked in after the Buffalo Sabres clinched first place in the Atlantic Division on Monday, while home-ice advantage for Montreal and Tampa Bay remained undecided with one regular-season game left for both teams.

Bleacher Report

Vernon Matters reported that Tampa Bay (50-25-6) moved into second place in the Atlantic on Monday after a 4-3 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings, moving ahead of Montreal (48-23-10) with both teams tied at 106 points.

The Canadiens sit third, with the Lightning holding the regulation-wins tiebreaker, and Montreal closes its regular season Tuesday in Philadelphia while Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers in its finale Wednesday.

The report also said the matchup marks a fifth playoff series between the two teams and a rematch of the 2021 Stanley Cup final, won by the Lightning in five games.

Montreal went 2-1-1 in the head-to-head meetings this season, including a pair of heated wins over Tampa Bay in the past two weeks, including a 4-1 win in Tampa on March 31 and a 2-1 loss last Thursday that featured 126 penalty minutes.

Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki described the intensity after Thursday’s win, saying, “It was physical. A lot of emotion, a lot of scrums,” and added, “If we see them in the first round, I think (there’s) a lot more of that to come so it should be fun.”

The Canadiens’ path to the matchup is framed in the local coverage as a rebuild that is ahead of schedule, while the Lightning are presented as a steady postseason force.

Montreal Gazette reported that the Canadiens have been rebuilding for more than four years and that the goal was “to become a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning,” a team whose goal is not just to make the playoffs but to be a “legitimate Stanley Cup contender for several years in a row.”

ESPN

The Canadiens entered the postseason after making the playoffs for the second straight season with a 48-24-10 record, and the paper said they lost their final regular-season game 4-2 to the Flyers Tuesday night in Philadelphia.

Montreal Gazette also emphasized the age gap, saying the Lightning has an average age of 30.1 while the Canadiens have an average age of 26, and it tied the home-ice picture to a specific tiebreaker: “While the Canadiens and Lightning are tied in points with 106, Tampa Bay holds the first tie-breaker, which is regulation-time wins.”

It added that the Lightning will play its final regular-season game Wednesday against the New York Rangers in Tampa (7 p.m., TVA Sports2), and it projected that Game 1 “will likely be Sunday in Tampa” because of a concert booked for Saturday night at Benchmark International Arena.

ESPN’s broader playoff preview also described how the playoff field is under fire and how seeding and matchups can shape outcomes, writing that the Central and Atlantic Division teams remain the “teams being penalized for being too good.”

ESPN also noted that “the biggest flaw of the playoffs in general might be the seeding system.”

The matchup is built around star production and goaltending, with multiple named players and direct quotes shaping how the teams are described heading into the series.

“Since the Canadiens started their rebuilding process more than four years ago, the goal was to become a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning”

Montreal Gazette

Vernon Matters highlighted Tampa Bay’s offensive leader, stating that Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov has led the offence with 130 points (44 goals, 86 assists) in 75 games, and it listed Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy as leading the league with 39 wins to go with a .912 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average.

It also said the status of captain Victor Hedman remains unclear after he took a personal leave of absence March 25.

On the Canadiens side, Vernon Matters pointed to Cole Caufield reaching 50 goals, Suzuki breaking the 100-point plateau, and Lane Hutson tying Larry Robinson for most assists by a Montreal defenceman in a single season (66).

Montreal Gazette added that the Canadiens will be without injured defenceman Noah Dobson to start the playoffs, calling it “a big blow,” and it described the challenge of facing Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The local coverage also returned to the physical tone of the rivalry, quoting Suzuki again about the intensity and emotion, and it brought in another Canadiens voice: Josh Anderson said, “I think we’re just a hard team to play against when we’re on,” and added, “I loved our pack mentality. Everybody was in there. Nobody was shy. That’s what we needed.”

ESPN’s preview, while not focused on the Canadiens-Lightning series, similarly used named players and roles to frame playoff weaknesses, including its mention that Kris Letang is “a key member of a top-10 penalty kill unit.”

While the matchup is the same across outlets, the emphasis differs between a tactical preview and a local series preview, and even a national-style bracket prediction.

ESPN’s playoff contender flaws piece is organized around “fatal flaw” analysis and the idea that “every team has a fatal flaw,” arguing that “the team that best mitigates its fatal flaw -- and gets some luck -- is likely to lift the Stanley Cup.”

Vernon Matters

Bleacher Report, by contrast, presents “Final Postseason Bracket Predictions” and explicitly states that “These are predictions,” while still naming the matchup as “Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic 2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic 3).”

Bleacher Report also ties home-ice to a concrete scenario, saying the two teams enter play on Tuesday tied with 106 points and that “the Lightning have the tiebreaker due to more regulation wins,” then adding that they can secure home-ice advantage on Wednesday night with a win over the New York Rangers.

It further lays out a conditional path involving the Philadelphia Flyers, stating that “A Montreal regulation loss in that game would secure the No. 2 spot for Tampa Bay,” and it notes that “Any Montreal point would force Tampa Bay to win on Wednesday.”

Vernon Matters and Montreal Gazette both focus on the rivalry’s physicality and the Canadiens’ rebuild timeline, with Vernon Matters quoting Suzuki’s “It was physical. A lot of emotion, a lot of scrums,” and Montreal Gazette quoting Suzuki’s “If we see them in the first round, I think (there’s) a lot more of that to come so it should be fun.”

Heading into the series, the sources lay out both immediate scheduling and longer-term implications for each team’s postseason run.

“Final Postseason Bracket Predictions 5 Days from the 2026 NHL Playoffs We are less than a week away from the start of the 2025-26 Stanley Cup playoffs, and things are starting to get settled”

Bleacher Report

Vernon Matters says the playoffs begin Saturday and that Montreal closes its regular season Tuesday in Philadelphia while Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers in its finale Wednesday, with home-ice advantage still undecided because of the regulation-wins tiebreaker.

Bleacher Report

Montreal Gazette adds that Game 1 “will likely be Sunday in Tampa” and ties that projection to a concert booked for Saturday night at Benchmark International Arena, while also emphasizing that the Lightning are headed to the post-season for the ninth straight year.

It also situates the series within recent history, saying the Lightning won two Stanley Cups in the last 13 years—“in 2020 and 2021”—and that they beat the Canadiens in the final in 2021, while also noting the Canadiens lost to the Washington Capitals in five games in the first round last year.

ESPN’s preview broadens the stakes by arguing that the seeding system can produce early matchups between top teams, writing that “two of the top seven teams in the NHL should be playing each other right off the bat,” and it frames the field as “wide open,” with “13 or 14 teams” capable of reaching the Cup Final.

For the Canadiens specifically, Montreal Gazette points to the absence of Noah Dobson and the possibility that Andrei Vasilevskiy “could be the difference in the series,” while also noting that the Lightning has lost in the first round in each of the last three years.

Across the coverage, the next step is clear: the teams play out the final regular-season games, then the series begins this weekend with the Canadiens-Lightning matchup set and home-ice determined by the remaining results.