Image: The New York Times

Polymarket Traders Profit $553K on Iran War Bets as Congressional Scrutiny Grows

02 March, 2026.Crypto.4 sources

Key Takeaways

Bettors on Polymarket profited substantially from Iran-related bets before the strike.
Total volume of Polymarket Iran-related contracts runs into hundreds of millions.
Congress and independent analysts raised concerns about insider trading due to pre-strike bets.

Prediction Market Profits

Polymarket faced scrutiny as traders profited from Iran war predictions.

“The main bet on the front page of Polymarket right now is “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30”

404 Media

Contracts reached a total volume of $529 million.

404 Media

Trader 'Magamyman' made more than $553,000 before an Israeli strike killed Khamenei.

Suspicious Betting Patterns

More than 150 accounts placed hundreds of $1,000+ bets.

The bets correctly predicted a strike by the next day.

ctech

The total was about $855,000.

Congress Demands Answers

Sen. Chris Murphy called the platform insane.

“Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market site Polymarket about Iran and its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday”