President Donald Trump Faces Rising Impeachment Odds as Markets Signal 47% Yes

President Trump faces significantly elevated impeachment odds as prediction markets show growing investor confidence in the likelihood of his removal from office before his second term concludes.

“With his Atlantic City casinos in duress in the 1990s, Donald Trump saw a potential lifeline in sports betting and aggressively campaigned to legalize it in New Jersey”

CNN

Polymarket's contract on whether Trump will be impeached before January 20, 2029, currently shows a 47% probability for 'Yes,' while Kalshi reached record highs of 67% likelihood on February 22 and March 6, 2026.

CNN

These market signals come despite Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, with the House GOP holding a narrow 220-215 majority.

Trump himself has predicted impeachment if Democrats regain control of the House, telling Republican members in January that 'the party would find a reason to impeach him.'

The markets resolve to 'Yes' if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment, with neither a Senate trial nor conviction required, making control of the House chamber pivotal for any impeachment proceedings.

Trump's declining approval ratings appear to be driving the increased impeachment probabilities, with polling analyst Nate Silver's approval tracker showing a new net low of minus 15.3 percent.

This figure is driven by near-universal Democratic disapproval and growing negativity among independents, reflecting public discontent over several key policy areas.

Newsweek

The president's administration has faced criticism over the ongoing war in Iran, sweeping immigration raids, and slow-to-happen grocery price reductions, with Democrats seeking to capitalize on this unrest during the primary season for congressional races across the country.

Despite the negative polling, Trump has dismissed concerns about his approval numbers, telling the New York Post that 'I think that the polling is very good, but I don't care about polling. I have to do the right thing.'

The White House has defended the administration's actions, with spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizing that 'What matters most to the American people is having a commander-in-chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing with the ongoing successful Operation Epic Fury.'

The surge in impeachment prediction market activity has sparked a significant legal and regulatory battle between state attorneys general and federal regulators.

“With his Atlantic City casinos in duress in the 1990s, Donald Trump saw a potential lifeline in sports betting and aggressively campaigned to legalize it in New Jersey”

CNN

States, led by Nevada's gaming regulators, have filed lawsuits against prediction market companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing they operate unauthorized gambling operations.

Former New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin, a Democrat who was the first state AG to try to shut down Kalshi, claimed CFTC Chairman Rostin Selig is 'trying to swoop in and shut down regulation,' even though 'states have been the principal regulators for years' for gambling.

Selig has countered that the CFTC, not the states, has exclusive authority to regulate these platforms because the event contracts they offer are legally classified as a financial instrument called a derivative swap under federal law.

'Applying state-by-state local requirements to national commodity exchanges would create the very 'patchwork' that Congress set out to prevent,' CFTC lawyers wrote in a court filing.

Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Democrat, accused Selig of trying 'to enrich President Trump, his family and their billionaire supporters' by opposing her state's efforts to regulate prediction markets.

The impeachment prediction market activity has also prompted legislative action, with lawmakers proposing at least six bills this year to further regulate prediction markets.

Almost all of these proposals have come from Democrats, but Rep. Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, has co-written a bipartisan bill that seeks to ban prediction market wagers on sports, terrorism, war and assassinations.

Newsweek

'We've already determined for decades that these types of things should not be available – we're just trying to add teeth to what already exists,' Moore told CNN, adding that these markets are 'ripe for complete debauchery.'

Moore said he hasn't faced 'any particular pressure from the White House' about his bill, though he acknowledged that 'Any legislation is challenging' when asked about GOP-led Congress imposing guardrails on an industry tied to Trump family interests.

The political dynamics suggest that impeachment likelihood could shift significantly if Democrats regain control of the House in the 2026 midterms, though the Senate would still require a two-thirds vote for conviction.

Democratic leaders have indicated that impeachment requires a comprehensive process that has not advanced under the Republican majority, with the House previously voting down impeachment resolutions during Trump's second term, including efforts in June and December 2025.