Senate Control In Midterms Is A Coinflip, Bettors Predict—Democrats Are Closing The Gap

Bettors on key online platforms believe Democrats have a virtually equal chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate after the midterms, with odds moving in the party’s favor in recent weeks as polls show President Donald Trump’s high disapproval ratings and opposition to the Iran war.

“Topline Bettors on key online platforms believe Democrats have a virtually equal chance of re-taking control of the U”

Forbes

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, bookmakers now assign a 50% chance to each party taking control of the Senate.

Forbes

Democrats briefly edged ahead on Thursday night, as betting odds favoring the GOP fell sharply from 66% at the start of February.

Kalshi bettors now believe Democrats have a 49.9% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate, a major shift from just a month ago when bookmakers on the platform believed the GOP had a 60% chance of retaining control.

The Republican Party’s odds were even higher at the end of last year at 68%, but they have steadily declined since the start of 2026.

Forbes

Odds for the House race are firmly in favor of Democrats, with bettors giving them an 84% to winning back control.

Odds for the House have favored Democrats since last year, but they had briefly narrowed to around 58-42 in November.

On Polymarket, bookmakers predict Republicans have a 51% chance of retaining control of the Senate; however, the breakdown of seat-specific races favors Democrats gaining control of 51 seats to Republicans’ 49.

“Topline Bettors on key online platforms believe Democrats have a virtually equal chance of re-taking control of the U”

Forbes

Bettors on the crypto-based platform believe Alaska and Ohio's Senate seats will be the most competitive races, with the Democrats being slightly favored in both.

In the House, Polymarket bookmakers are betting that Democrats will win a sizable majority of 241 seats.

Across platforms, odds diverge: Kalshi assigns Democrats a 49.9% chance to retake the Senate and an 84% chance to win back the House.

While Polymarket places Republicans at 51% to retain the Senate and projects Democrats to win a 241-seat House.

Forbes