Shrinking weapon stockpiles and regime-change uncertainty: doubts shadow US-Israel war on Iran

A classified intelligence review, reported by the Washington Post, found that a bombing campaign is unlikely to oust Iran’s military and clerical establishment and suggested the Trump administration may be ill-equipped for a regime-change war.

“US government reviews of the war in Iran show that the Trump administration may be ill-equipped for a regime-change war, according to reports”

The Guardian

The report, completed in mid-February by the National Intelligence Council, outlined two potential US actions and concluded that in both cases Iran’s government would follow protocols for a successor of the country’s supreme leader.

The Guardian

After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated last week, the Iranian government named an interim leadership council made up of the Iranian president and other top officials to choose the next supreme leader.

Intelligence officials said it was "unlikely" that Iran’s opposition would take control.

The US and Israel began bombing Iran last week.

The campaign assassinated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian leaders and struck government buildings, military installations, civilian buildings, hospitals and schools.

The Guardian

On the first day of the bombing campaign, 168 young girls were killed in a direct strike on their school.

The Associated Press later reported that the deadly strike likely came from the US.

Since the strikes began, Iran has engaged in retaliatory strikes targeting Israel, US installations in the region and several Middle Eastern countries hosting US bases.

The Trump administration has claimed that Iran has attempted to negotiate a ceasefire, despite multiple reports showing the contrary.

US lawmakers and experts warned of domestic and strategic costs.

“US government reviews of the war in Iran show that the Trump administration may be ill-equipped for a regime-change war, according to reports”

The Guardian

Democrats raised concerns at a closed-door briefing earlier this week that intensive use of missiles and advanced weapons is diminishing US stockpiles, potentially affecting support for allies like Ukraine.

Senator Richard Blumenthal told Time he was 'deeply concerned about Ukraine,' saying US military 'resources and supplies are limited.'

Ryan Brobst, speaking to the AP, said he was not worried about running out during the conflict but warned about deterrence against China and Russia after the war.

Weapons manufacturers have agreed to increase production, and Lockheed Martin said on Friday it agreed to 'quadruple critical munitions production.'

President Trump, speaking at the Shield of the Americas summit in Florida, asserted military successes in Iran, saying, 'We're doing very well in Iran... We've knocked out 42 navy ships... We knocked out the air force. We knocked out their communications.'

President Trump framed the campaign as preventing a near-term Iranian nuclear threat.