Trump Signals Possible End to War, Oil Dives $20 to Below $90 in Record Reversal
Key Takeaways
- Trump signalled possible end to the war, prompting oil markets to reverse sharply
- Brent fell from a $119.50 intraday high to about $88–89 per barrel
- Markets swung from panic to reassurance within 24 hours, marking a record intraday reversal
Volatile oil price swing
Oil markets experienced an extraordinary reversal over 24 hours.
“In a dramatic scene reflecting the intensity of the swings, global energy markets saw a sharp decline in crude prices on Tuesday, with Brent futures falling below $89”
Brent crude surged to an intraday high of $119.50 before collapsing to the high $80s.
Brent fell nearly 11% to $88.36 per barrel and U.S. crude dropped over 10% to $85.17 per barrel (9:25 p.m. ET Monday).
Al-Jazeera characterized the move as a roughly 29% spike followed by a drop of more than 10%, calling it extreme volatility and noting Brent hit a three-year high of $119.50 on Monday and then fell below $89.58 on Tuesday.
The Economic Times highlighted that the fall from the intraday high was the steepest intraday-peak-to-close fall for Brent, underscoring the rapid, record-scale intraday reversal.
Market reaction to Trump comments
Market movement was sharply influenced by statements from Donald Trump and responses from Iranian forces.
Economic Times links the sell-off to Donald Trump’s CBS News comments that the war with Iran was "very complete" and "very far ahead" of his earlier four-to-five week estimate, a remark that initially fed risk premia and price swings.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded that they would determine when the war ends and warned they would block oil exports from the region if U.S. and Israeli strikes continued, intensifying supply-risk concerns.
Al-Jazeera notes that later remarks attributed to Donald Trump that the war could end "very soon" undercut some of those risk premia, helping the price retreat.
Oil market reactions
Beyond headline political remarks, traders reacted to a mix of diplomatic and policy signals that suggested either additional supply or a quicker de-escalation.
“In a dramatic scene reflecting the intensity of the swings, global energy markets saw a sharp decline in crude prices on Tuesday, with Brent futures falling below $89”
Al-Jazeera reports a “long phone call between ترمب and فلاديمير بوتين” that raised hopes for coordinated pressure toward a swift settlement, and it points to “reports the U.S. might ease sanctions on Russian oil” as reducing fears of prolonged shortages.
The same Al-Jazeera piece cites “discussions of a coordinated large release from strategic oil reserves (G7/IEA)” and says those policy hints prompted speculators to step back.
The Economic Times adds another risk factor that had earlier pushed prices up: Qatar’s energy minister warning Gulf producers could halt exports within weeks — a scenario that could have driven prices toward $150/barrel.
Economic consequences of tensions
Analysts and commentators flagged concrete economic consequences and channels through which renewed tensions or a break in volatility would affect consuming countries.
The Economic Times cites JM Financial’s estimate that 'each $1 rise in crude raises India’s annual import bill by about $2 billion' and warns that prolonged tensions could 'increase logistics and insurance costs, disrupt shipping through the Gulf, pressure the trade balance, weigh on the rupee (prompting possible RBI intervention), raise inflation and bond yields, and strain equity valuations.'
Al-Jazeera frames the episode as evidence of how sensitive markets are to rapid political developments and mixed signals, explaining that diplomatic and policy hints prompted speculators to step back while markets awaited concrete actions.