Finance13 March, 20261 min read
US CPI Inflation Holds at 2.4 Percent as Oil Price Spike Looms
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February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January. Month-over-month CPI rose 0.3% in February.
February CPI Core Data
US consumer inflation held steady at 2.4 percent year over year. Core CPI also held steady at 2.5 percent.
Shelter costs were the largest contributor to the monthly rise, increasing 0.2 percent. Food prices rose 0.4 percent following a softer gain the prior month.
Oil Price Spike Not Yet Reflected
The CPI data does not include the impact of the oil price surge. Brent crude jumped from about $70 to nearly $120 per barrel within days.
Analysts agree the oil spike will show up in CPI figures over the next three months. A $10 per barrel increase can add roughly 0.2 percentage points to the CPI.
Mixed Price Movements
Core goods prices rose 0.1 percent month over month. Apparel prices jumped 1.3 percent. Services inflation showed some cooling driven by easing travel costs.
Inflation Outlook
Headline inflation was at its lowest in five years. Progress on the inflation front was showing signs of petering out even before the oil shock.
RSM's Brusuelas said the February data was already fully priced in. The Middle East conflict introduces considerable uncertainty into the inflation trajectory.
