
US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Stall as Trump Threatens Infrastructure Strikes
Key Takeaways
- Mediators push a 45-day ceasefire as talks stall.
- Trump deadline pressures talks, with threats to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants.
- Pakistan-led mediators and other regional players pursue ceasefire terms and Hormuz reopening.
Diplomatic Push and Trump Deadline
A Pakistan-led mediation team pushed for a 45-day ceasefire as Trump threatened to destroy Iran's infrastructure.
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Iran submitted a 10-point peace plan calling for a permanent end to the war rather than a temporary ceasefire.

Trump acknowledged the proposal as a significant step but said it was not good enough.
Iran then rejected the ceasefire proposal and demanded a complete end to the fighting along with safe passage guarantees for the Strait of Hormuz.
Prediction Markets and Public Skepticism
Prediction markets showed plummeting odds for a ceasefire by April 7, falling to just 1% YES.
Longer-term markets for April 15 and April 30 showed more cautious optimism.

An official labeled Iran's hardline response as a negotiating tactic, hinting Trump might delay actions if a deal seems possible.
Despite these signals, the odds of a ceasefire within four days remained slim.
Iran's Reaction and Regional Risks
Iran would not open the Strait of Hormuz unless a permanent ceasefire deal is made.
Any further strike on Tehran could prompt severe retaliation targeting Gulf energy and water facilities.
Iranian authorities ordered immediate evacuations near nuclear sites.
The war entered its eleventh day with escalating risks.
US Nukes and Congressional Push
US nuclear weapons were deployed to the Middle East as the threat escalated.
Congressional Democrats demanded briefings on the legal authority for the strikes.

The Council on Foreign Relations said this was a major shift to pursuing regime change.
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