US-Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Above $115, Derails Fed's Inflation Momentum

Brent crude surged above $115 per barrel, rebounding nearly 15% since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

“US consumers continue to struggle with inflationary pressures”

Deloitte

The US used its strategic petroleum reserve, releasing 26 million barrels, but this could only partially offset losses from blocked trade corridors.

Deloitte

Perfil writes the escalation "moved beyond geopolitical tension to directly affect the core variables of the global economy."

This marked a shift in oil from a geopolitical variable to a concrete macroeconomic constraint.

US consumers continue to struggle with inflationary pressures driven by rising prices of essential goods and services.

In December 2025, personal consumption expenditures inflation rose to 2.9% year over year—highest in two years.

Deloitte Insights

Within services, inflation shifted from housing to utilities, with electricity up 8% and natural gas up 13%.

Food prices have also gone up, compounding pressure on consumer spending.

Persistent conflict triggered higher prices and created uncertainty that affected US economic activity.

“Persistent conflict in the Middle East has triggered higher prices, significantly affecting the evolution of the U”

Infobae

The S&P Global PMI dropped to 51.4, the lowest level since April 2025, signaling an unexpected slowdown.

The decline was attributed to broad weakening of business activity and a drop in export sales.

In contrast, manufacturing showed a more favorable development, with PMI rising to 52.9.