White House Confronts Worst-Case War With Iran That Could Unravel Middle East

The author frames the analysis as scenario planning that deliberately examines plausible but not necessarily likely outcomes, arguing that worst-case scenarios are vital for testing preparedness.

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The piece explicitly sets out one such scenario — a full collapse of governing authority in Iran that descends into civil war — to show how planning should consider extreme bookend possibilities even if they feel alarmist.

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The imagined civil-war trajectory begins with decisive strikes: U.S. and Israeli attacks early in the conflict incapacitate many senior Iranian officials, fracturing central control and triggering mass protests, prison uprisings, and military defections.

As authority unravels, a multiplicity of factions — remnants of the regime, disparate protest movements, criminalized armed groups, and minority separatists like Kurdish and Baloch forces — compete for territory and economic assets such as oil and gas facilities.

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Violence and state collapse would immediately spill across borders, producing a massive refugee flow and exacerbating instability in neighboring states.

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The piece compares potential Iranian displacement to Syria’s exodus, forecasts millions fleeing to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey and beyond, and warns that such flows would overwhelm regional absorptive capacity and strain Europe and other destinations, further destabilizing fragile neighbors and complicating recovery in Syria and Lebanon.

The scenario also outlines broader security and economic dislocations: maritime routes and the Strait of Hormuz face new piracy and insecurity as armed groups and criminal networks exploit chaos.

Regional economies — notably the Gulf states — suffer setbacks to diversification and growth; and global energy markets could face prolonged price pressures as shipping, production, and investment are disrupted.

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Finally, the author warns of longer-term geopolitical ripple effects: civil war in Iran could revive and spawn extremist movements as past regional conflicts did, provide propaganda and positioning gains to competitors like China and Russia, and create strategic narratives that portray the United States as reckless.

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It would also distract global powers from Israeli-Palestinian issues while enabling Israel to consolidate positions in the occupied territories in the short term, potentially deepening long-term instability.

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