White House Prepares One-Page Memorandum With Iran To End War, Awaiting Response

The White House is preparing a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources cited by Axios. The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points within the next 48 hours, and Axios says nothing has been finalized yet while calling it "the closest the parties have been to a deal since the start of the war." The memorandum is described as a 14-point document that would involve an Iranian commitment to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, a U.S. agreement to lift sanctions, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations on a detailed agreement are expected to begin during a 30-day negotiation period, with sources saying they could take place in Islamabad or Geneva.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that "we don't have to have the actual agreement written in one day," describing the issue as "highly complex and technical" while urging a diplomatic solution that defines topics and concessions. A Pakistani source involved in peace efforts told Reuters, as cited by Axios, "We will close this very soon. We are getting close," and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister said the country is working to ensure the agreement would lead to a "permanent end" to the conflict. In Washington and Tehran, officials were working on the memorandum as markets reacted to the report, with NBC News saying U.S. crude oil plunged by 12% to below $90 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 11% to below $100 per barrel. NBC News also reported that the nationwide average U.S. retail gas price jumped past $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, reaching $4.54.

The draft memorandum’s terms are described as contingent on reaching a final comprehensive agreement, leaving open the possibility of renewed war or a prolonged state of uncertainty in which the "hot" war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved. Axios says the U.S. wants a provision that would extend the moratorium if Iran violates enrichment rules, and it reports that Iran would be able to enrich uranium to a low level of 3.67% after the moratorium expires. If negotiations collapse, Axios reports that U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, and it says the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait would be phased out during the 30-day period. NBC News adds that only one ship crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and it reported that on Monday the figure was only 4 ships, underscoring how quickly the strait’s disruption could return if the talks fail.

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