Why Vladimir Putin may be the big winner in Trump's Iran war

Russian President Vladimir Putin may emerge as the main beneficiary of the Iran war because rising energy prices and a shift of Western attention and military resources to the Middle East strengthen Russia’s economy and strategic position, European Council President António Costa said Tuesday as he addressed ambassadors in Brussels.

“Oil prices are soaring, and America’s attention and its military resources have shifted decisively to the Middle East”

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Costa said Russia “gains new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise,” that it “profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Ukraine,” and that it “benefits from reduced attention to the Ukrainian front as the conflict in the Middle East takes center stage.”

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After a Kremlin meeting Monday, Putin told policymakers, ministers and business chiefs that it was “important for Russian energy companies to make use of the current moment,” and he suggested the European Union might rethink a “long-term, stable cooperation” with Moscow as energy markets shift.

Oil prices spiked to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and remained high as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stayed at a virtual halt, threatening the global energy supply.

Iran has said it would “set fire” to ships trying to pass through the narrow waterway, though a small amount of traffic has continued, and Russian media amplified the impact with headlines such as Izvestia’s “Eastern Strike: Oil Price Could Surpass $150.”

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Pro‑Kremlin TV host Olga Skabeyeva quipped about fuel shortages in neighboring Estonia, reflecting domestic commentary on the price surge.

The Kremlin may gain financially from sustained higher oil prices, but analysts cautioned the extent depends on how long the Middle East conflict endures.

“Oil prices are soaring, and America’s attention and its military resources have shifted decisively to the Middle East”

NBC News

Petras Katinas of the Royal United Services Institute said the longer prices stay high, the more Russia can sell crude with a lower discount because the discount Russia trades at to compensate for U.S. sanctions has been shrinking.

James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies warned the revenue boost would likely provide new funds for Russia’s war in Ukraine and that “no one would be surprised if military spending went up as a result of this.”

The Middle East crisis has also diverted U.S. military resources and political attention away from Ukraine, a dynamic President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted by saying every air defense missile used to protect U.S. assets in the Middle East drains resources that could have been available to Ukraine, which commentators described as another win for the Kremlin.

John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre said the diversion has helped Russia in some ways, noting that Trump’s pressure on Zelenskyy has been “very helpful for the Russians,” but Lough added the situation could be “a double-edged sword” and said Russia has been exposed by the crisis as an actor with declining regional influence.

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NBC News reported that Russia has been a strategic partner for Iran, helping equip its army in Ukraine with drones, and that sources told NBC Russia provided intelligence to Iran on the location of U.S. forces in the Middle East, although the Kremlin has not officially said it would provide military or intelligence assistance to Iran; Putin on Monday offered “unwavering support” to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader and a son of its former head of state, Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the U.S.-Israeli operation in Iran.