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War, budgets, endurance
Yaroslav Trofimov said Europe is already “at the heart of a war—the bloodiest since World War II,” describing nearly three years of large-scale fighting in Ukraine and warning that “we must first recognize that we are at war.”
“The Ukrainian writer and war journalist Yaroslav Trofimov (Kiev, 1969) born in Soviet Ukraine and a correspondent for decades in conflicts around the world, faced in 2022 the stark task of telling the war from his own country: 'Being in Kiev with the same bulletproof vest and the same helmet he had worn in Kabul or in Baghdad was for me almost a personal insult after spending the entire previous year in Afghanistan”
He cited a Gallup poll in Europe asking citizens whether they would defend their country if attacked, saying 29% of Spaniards, 23% of Germans and only 14% of Italians said they could fight for their country.
Sergii Marchenko, speaking from his experience as a member of the government and the National Security Council, said that on February 24, 2022 he had planned to go swimming and did not expect a major attack on Ukrainian territory.
Marchenko said the conflict has lasted “more than 1,000 days of conflict—1,061 days to be exact,” and argued that the lesson is to “keep fighting” through 2025, including by preparing a 2025 budget with “more than 50 billion euros to defense: half of our total budget.”
Drones reshape the front
El Mundo quoted Trofimov describing the front as a “death zone” where “no one can act because of the drones,” and said the war has become “a cat-and-mouse game in which both sides adapt constantly.”
Trofimov told El Mundo that the front line has not strategically changed since November 2022, describing “a devastated strip: 'It is no longer a front line, but a death zone of about 40 kilometers.”
In IsraelValley, the Israeli army said on Friday, June 13 that its air forces continued to intercept drones launched from Iran, with the IDF saying Tehran launched about a hundred drones toward Israeli territory.
That same article described Shahed-129 drones as “replicas of the American Predator” and said exported Shahed-136 kamikaze drones have been used against Ukraine by Russian forces since September 2022 under the name “Gueran-2 (Geranium-2).”
Escalation or deal
El Mundo reported Trofimov saying Putin is in a stalemate on the ground and “will have to choose: either to close a deal to freeze the war, or to escalate.”
“Iran draws inspiration from the Russian drone war to strike the United States Dubai — Videos aired this week by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias seem strangely familiar to anyone who has followed the war in Ukraine”
Trofimov warned that mobilization is not a “magical solution,” saying “Sending more people into this death zone will only lead to more people dying from drones, without achieving results.”
Le Grand Continent reported that Trofimov argued Russian officials have stated their ambitions are far greater, with the objective “to reshape Europe’s security architecture and push back NATO expansion.”
In the same conversation, Marchenko said Ukraine’s message to partners is that supporting Ukraine is “worth it because we have no choice but to continue,” and he said the 2025 budget is backed by loans from partners that give confidence to wage the war through 2025.
