1970s-like oil crisis ahead? Here’s why today’s crude spike reminds analysts of Arab oil embargo-led 300% rally

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, described the episode as "not just an oil price shock - it is also an oil quantity shock."

“1970s-like oil crisis ahead”

Economic Times

He said the market faces two broad paths: if the Strait becomes operational and flows normalize, prices could correct sharply.

He said if disruption persists for several weeks, prices could rise further until they begin to destroy demand and inflict "serious damage on the global economy through inflation, tighter financial conditions, and disruptions to trade and industrial activity."

Banerjee outlined an escalation ladder from transit disruption to direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and, least probable but most severe, damage to critical water infrastructure with major humanitarian implications.

He identified $125 per barrel as an immediate resistance zone (with potential to target 2008 highs near $145-$150 if breached) and $90 as a critical support level, and advised traders to "approach the market cautiously and prefer defined-risk strategies such as options spreads rather than open-ended directional positions."

Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that prices could surge to as high as $150 a barrel if the conflict intensifies and disrupts Gulf energy supplies.