AP analysis: Two weeks into war with Iran, Trump has been knocked back on his political heels

Two weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump has been knocked on his political heels.

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He has grown agitated with news coverage and has failed to find a way to explain why he started the war or how he will end it in a manner that resonates with a public worried by American deaths, surging oil prices, and falling financial markets.

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Even some of his supporters are questioning his plan, and his poll numbers have declined.

Democrats have come together to oppose Trump's Iran policy and point to the economic turmoil as proof that Republicans haven't kept their promises to lower everyday costs.

Kelly Dietrich, CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee, says Democrats are well-positioned for this November.

The president spent the weekend at his West Palm Beach golf club and attended a closed-door fundraiser for his MAGA Inc. super PAC at Mar-a-Lago, while last weekend he played golf after witnessing the dignified transfer for six U.S. soldiers killed in the Iran war, with the death toll rising this past week.

Trump for the first time signaled ideas about mobilizing international partners to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which about a fifth of the world's traded oil passes and where disruptions have unsettled energy markets.

He posted that many affected countries would send warships to keep the strait open and safe, calling it a 'team effort' and naming China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others as potential contributors, though it remained unclear when such a multinational push would begin.

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Allies reacted cautiously: South Korea said it would coordinate and carefully review the plan, Japan was closely watching developments, and Britain's defense ministry said it was discussing options to ensure the security of shipping in the region.

A Chinese embassy spokesperson said keeping Hormuz safe and stable serves the common interests of the international community, while the United States had not provided further details on this effort.

Separately, the Treasury Department announced a 30-day waiver on Russian sanctions aimed at freeing Russian oil cargoes stranded at sea to ease supply shortages, a move Zelenskyy criticized as not right because it could strengthen Russia's position.

Iran has said it will continue attacks on energy infrastructure and use its effective closure of the strait as leverage against the United States and Israel.

Analysts noted that spiraling oil prices due to Persian Gulf production blockages are benefiting the Russian economy.

Trump's public communications continued to complicate the narrative.

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He complained about media coverage, writing that 'Media actually want us to lose the War,' while a broadcast regulator threatened to pull licenses unless coverage is corrected.

He had kept allies other than Israel in the dark about war plans for Iran, and his public remarks about a multinational force to escort tankers through Hormuz had not materialized, fueling questions about his strategy.

During a Kentucky rally he asserted that 'We've won,' a claim that ongoing uncertainties about Hormuz and the oil push undercut.

Democrats warned that the conflict and its economic fallout would influence the midterms, while some Republicans and right‑wing commentators criticized Trump as his base grew divided.

Energy price pressures persisted, with officials noting that prices would stay high for a period, complicating the political calculation ahead of Election Day.

Looking ahead to the midterms, Democrats argue the administration's handling of the war and the resulting economic strain undermine Republican promises to lower costs, while strategists say Democrats are well-positioned for November.

Rand Paul warned that continuing high gas prices could produce a disastrous election for the GOP.

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Some Trump allies beyond Israel have criticized the approach, while others remain supportive of the MAGA agenda.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Americans are feeling higher energy prices now and would endure this for a few more weeks.

Overall, the debate over Iran policy and energy costs shapes expectations for a potential midterm outcome rivaling the 2018 blue wave, with observers stressing the need for voters to weigh the costs of the administration's choices.