Circle's USDC Overtakes Tether's USDT in Transaction Volume, Mizuho Boosts Price Target

Mizuho reported that Circle’s USDC recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume year-to-date in 2026, surpassing Tether’s USDT at roughly $1.3 trillion and marking the first time USDC has overtaken USDT in transaction flow since 2019; the bank raised its Circle price target to $120 from $100 while maintaining a neutral rating.

“Circle's USDC volumes top Tether's USDT for first time since 2019, prompting sell-side price target hike Japanese investment bank Mizuho remains neutral on Circle, but lifted it price target to $120 from $100”

@coindesk

This shift prompted sell-side attention and was highlighted as a major reversal of the prior multi-year dominance by USDT.

@coindesk

The analysts behind the note were named Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins, who cited USDC activity trends and specific use cases to justify their raised estimates.

The adjusted-volume figures imply USDC holds roughly a 64% share of adjusted transaction volumes in 2026, a sharp reversal from the 2019–2025 period when Tether consistently led and USDC averaged about a 30% share.

Analysts argued that the long-term winner among stablecoins will be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone.

CoinDesk

Standard Chartered’s outlook was cited projecting the stablecoin market cap could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, underscoring the growth thesis supporting higher Circle valuations.

The market reaction included a modest uptick in Circle shares, which rose about 1% in early trading to $115.40 and were reported as roughly 95% higher from February lows, reflecting investor reassessment after Mizuho’s note.

“Circle's USDC volumes top Tether's USDT for first time since 2019, prompting sell-side price target hike Japanese investment bank Mizuho remains neutral on Circle, but lifted it price target to $120 from $100”

@coindesk

The bank also raised several long-term Circle forecasts, including projecting “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027 and lifting its expected USDC market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.

These forecast changes were tied directly to expanding use cases such as prediction markets and expectations around agentic commerce.

Analysts framed the significance of the shift beyond headline volumes by noting the role of stablecoins as payment and settlement rails in the crypto economy — particularly for trading and cross-border transfers — and by situating Circle’s $78 billion market cap against Tether’s $143 billion.

The note emphasized that real economic usage in areas like Polymarket could be decisive for long-term leadership.

CoinDesk

The coverage highlighted that Circle has been outperforming other crypto-linked equities recently, which, combined with Mizuho’s raised targets, underscores growing investor confidence in USDC’s utility-driven growth story.