Colorado State University Predicts Slightly Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Key Takeaways
- 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes predicted for 2026 Atlantic season.
- Forecast calls for somewhat below-average season due to El Niño.
- CSU has a historically strong track record forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity.
CSU Forecast
Colorado State University released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
“Fewer storms than usual may develop during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, researchers say, as climate patterns seem poised to favor slightly below-average activity compared with a typical year”
The forecast attributes the below-average activity primarily to the anticipated development of a moderate to strong El Niño.
Klotzbach cautioned that there are curveballs that could come our way.
The forecast includes a 32% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline.
There is a 15% chance for the East Coast including Florida, and 20% for the Gulf Coast.
El Niño Impact
The forecast's primary driver is the expected transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions.
The waters in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, while they are slightly cooler than normal in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
The April forecast is the first below-average outlook CSU has issued since 2023.
Forecasters cautioned that April outlooks have lower skill than those issued later in the season.
The Climate Prediction Center has said there's a 61% chance of El Niño between May and July.
Regional Risks
CSU's forecast breaks down regional landfall probabilities for Florida and the Gulf Coast.
“The first major hurricane outlook of the season is here”
Florida faces a 74% chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles.
Forecasters emphasized that it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.
The forecast noted that while 2025 had 13 named storms, only five became hurricanes.
Uncertainties and Updates
CSU researchers stressed the inherent uncertainties in seasonal forecasting.
The April outlook is historically less accurate than those issued closer to the season's peak.
They plan to update the forecast on June 10, July 8, and August 5.
The forecast highlighted the tug-of-war between warmer Atlantic waters and El Niño.
The Guardian reported that the audit system is fundamentally broken.
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