Crypto Traders Bet Against US–Iran Ceasefire This Month After U.S.–Israel Strikes

Reports said prediction-market platform Polymarket was forced to withdraw contracts tied to a hypothetical nuclear detonation, sparking a wave of controversy in crypto markets.

“Crypto Traders Bet Against U”

Coingape

Several Democrats sharply criticized the contracts as inappropriate and vulnerable to insider trading, warning that insiders could profit from sensitive information and creating political and regulatory pressure that unsettled some traders and platforms.

Coingape

Coingape reported claims that Iranian operatives had indirectly contacted the CIA about ending the war.

Tehran flatly denied those claims, and a semi-official Iranian outlet called them "pure falsehood and psychological warfare."

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The same coverage highlighted the wider economic stakes, noting the Pentagon estimates the conflict is costing the U.S. about $1 billion per day and that investors and policymakers are watching closely.

Market participants are showing caution: JPMorgan warned that Bitcoin—despite recent gains toward $74,000—remains vulnerable to declines, and drew a parallel to the early Ukraine war when markets initially held up before selling off as the conflict persisted.

“Crypto Traders Bet Against U”

Coingape

Coingape records crypto strategists’ and analysts’ views that the next two weeks are critical for the sector, reflecting short-term bet-making around geopolitical developments and potential ceasefires.

Coingape's crypto-news roundup links current market anxieties to a series of headline events.

Trump said the U.S.-Iran war could end soon and floated control of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Bhutan sold more Bitcoin.

Bitget upgraded its Agent Hub for real-time crypto trading.

Tom Lee’s BitMine bought a large amount of ETH.

Commentators published various price and speculation pieces about Pi Network, MSTR stock, and Bitcoin/XRP amid falling U.S. oil prices.

These mixed signals — political rhetoric, nation-level Bitcoin moves, platform upgrades, and large institutional buys — contribute to traders' divergent positions on whether a ceasefire will hold.

Given the limited source material provided, the balance of evidence in these excerpts points to heightened market risk.

“Crypto Traders Bet Against U”

Coingape

Political controversies around prediction markets are cited as one contributing factor.

Coingape

Tehran's denials of back-channel talks are cited as another contributing factor.

The Pentagon’s cost estimate is also cited as contributing to market uncertainty.

Financial firms’ warnings about crypto downside are likewise contributing to the overall risk picture.

These factors collectively explain why some traders are betting against a near-term U.S.–Iran ceasefire or are otherwise taking defensive positions.

Additional, multi-source reporting would be needed to fully map trade flows and quantify the scale of bets against a ceasefire.