Cuba’s Temporary Grid Solutions Conceal Vulnerabilities as U.S. Policy Risks and Outdated Power Stations Leave Electricity Supply Unstable | Bitget News

Cuba’s power grid remains highly unstable even as electricity has been restored for now following a 16-hour blackout earlier this month.

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Officials announced that only 590 megawatts of generation capacity are currently operational—less than a third of the island’s usual capacity, which is just under 2,000 megawatts.

The partial restoration came after addressing a major breakdown at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant, located about 100 kilometers east of Havana, with repair crews bringing the plant back online by late Saturday.

Despite this, the available power—estimated at around 1,000 megawatts—remains insufficient to meet national demand, leaving the grid under significant strain.

The immediate cause was a fuel shortage triggered by the United States halting Venezuelan oil shipments and threatening tariffs on other suppliers after the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The Energy Ministry described this as a blockade that cut Cuba’s main source of imported oil.

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The deeper issue is a persistent mismatch between supply and demand, rooted in years of economic hardship and aging, fossil-fuel-dependent infrastructure.

About 40% of Cuba’s power is generated by thermoelectric plants that have been in operation for over forty years.

The article notes this was not an isolated incident but the fifth major outage in less than six months, underscoring chronic instability.

While Cuba pursues solar power, the deficit remains vast and the grid remains vulnerable.

The energy crisis is driving severe economic and social consequences, including hospitals delaying thousands of medical procedures due to limited electricity and fuel, jeopardizing patient care.

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The unreliable power supply has fueled emigration, with up to 20% of the population leaving in the past five years.

Since 2020, Cuba’s GDP contracted by 15%, as energy shortages disrupt businesses, deter investment, and raise operating costs.

Looking ahead, the situation depends on two main factors: the slow pace of repairs to damaged plants like Antonio Guiteras and the ongoing impact of external policies.

Restoring damaged plants is a slow process, hindered by hazardous working conditions and safety risks.

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The most significant risk comes from U.S. policy, with the blockade—halting Venezuelan oil shipments and threatening tariffs on other exporters—pushing Cuba’s fragile system toward another crisis.

Even as Cuba pursues solar energy, renewables alone cannot fill the gap, since domestic oil production meets only about 40% of the country’s needs.

Without new fuel agreements or substantial international support, recurring outages and economic decline are likely to persist.

The article also advises monitoring the pace of repairs, changes in U.S. policy, and new fuel supply deals, and following government statements on energy negotiations for signs of progress or setbacks.

The situation remains precarious, and each day without a lasting solution increases the risk of another widespread blackout.