Emerson College Poll Shows Xavier Becerra Leading California Governor Race Ahead of Tom Steyer, Steve Hilton

The California governor’s race heading into the June 2 all-party primary is showing a tight top tier, with an Emerson College poll released Saturday showing Xavier Becerra leading at 28% among likely voters, followed by Tom Steyer at 22% and Republican Steve Hilton at 21%.

“SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- A crowded race for California governor is coming into sharper focus, with new polling released Friday showing three candidates separating themselves from the rest of the field”

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The Sacramento Bee reported that the same poll showed Steyer and Hilton both at 17% earlier this month, and that the Emerson survey found Katie Porter and Matt Mahan each at 5% on Saturday.

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NBC Los Angeles said the latest Emerson College Polling survey was conducted on May 27 and 28, and it put Becerra at 28% with Steyer at 22% and Hilton at 21%, while Chad Bianco was at 12% and other Democratic candidates were in single digits.

NBC Los Angeles also reported that only about 5% of voters remained undecided just four days before the primary election, with the poll’s margin of error listed as +/- 3%.

The race is structured so that the top two vote-getters in the California primary advance to a November runoff election, regardless of party affiliation, as described by NBC Los Angeles and the Sacramento Bee.

Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said Hilton could benefit if Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, writing, "If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit," in a statement carried by the Sacramento Bee.

The Sacramento Bee also framed Steyer’s path as depending on mobilizing younger voters, while Becerra’s growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer, and it noted that 12% of Bianco’s supporters could change their minds.

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NBC Los Angeles described a close toss-up between Steyer and Hilton, saying that when undecided voters were asked who they would support, Hilton and Steyer were tied, each receiving 23% of support.

KTLA reported that the final Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary showed Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton at 21%, with Chad Bianco at 12% and five percent undecided.

KTLA added that the survey polled 1,000 likely voters and listed a margin of error of 3%, while quoting Kimball that Hilton’s path depends on Bianco support melting and Steyer’s relies heavily on young voters turning in their ballots.

The stakes for the June 2 primary are tied to who advances to the November runoff, with NBC Los Angeles explaining that the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to face each other in November.

“LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- The primary elections are fast approaching, and the race for California governor is a tight one”

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The Public Policy Institute of California survey described the gubernatorial primary as generating high levels of interest because of uncertainty about the top-two candidates who will move on to the general election in November.

PPIC’s May 14–18, 2026 survey put the leading candidates in the top-two gubernatorial primary as Xavier Becerra (D; 23%) and Steve Hilton (R; 20%), followed by Tom Steyer (D; 15%), Chad Bianco (R; 13%), and Katie Porter (D; 12%).

The same PPIC survey said seven in ten likely voters are following the news about the governor’s race very or fairly closely, and it reported that about six in ten say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates in the governor’s race.

In the broader context of the election environment, PPIC said the gubernatorial primary has been shaped by the top-two uncertainty, while also noting that the November ballot has been taking shape with several citizens’ initiatives eligible and a June 25 deadline looming for qualification and withdrawal.