Hezbollah's strategy banks on Iranian clerics surviving, Mideast ceasefire, sources say
Key Takeaways
- Iran-backed Hezbollah returns to guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon using small units
- Hezbollah avoids electronic communications to prevent Israeli tapping
- Hezbollah prepares for a possible full-scale Israeli invasion and protracted conflict
Hezbollah battlefield tactics
Lebanon's Hezbollah has returned to its roots in guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon, operating in small units and avoiding the use of communication devices that could be at risk of Israeli tapping, four Lebanese sources said.
“Lebanon's Hezbollah is applying lessons from its last war with Israel as it braces for a possible full-scale Israeli invasion and protracted conflict, returning to its roots in guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon, four Lebanese sources said”
The sources, who are familiar with Hezbollah military activities, said fighters are rationing the use of key anti-tank rockets as they engage IDF troops.
The details of how Hezbollah is operating in the field have not previously been reported and the sources declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Hezbollah's media office didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trigger and consequences
Some 15 months since Israel pounded Hezbollah in their last war, the terror group sparked a new Israeli offensive last week by opening fire to avenge the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Heavily criticized in Lebanon for dragging the country into a war that has displaced 700,000 people, Hezbollah has described its actions as "existential defense," framing them as a response to Israeli attacks that have continued since a 2024 ceasefire.
The group has launched daily drone and rocket attacks at Israel, according to the article.
Strategic context and history
Hezbollah's calculations, the four sources said, are based on Iran's clerical leadership surviving the war and on the prospect of a regional ceasefire that would include the group.
“Lebanon's Hezbollah is applying lessons from its last war with Israel as it braces for a possible full-scale Israeli invasion and protracted conflict, returning to its roots in guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon, four Lebanese sources said”
Fighting has been focused near the town of Khiyam, near the intersection of Lebanon's border with Israel and Syria, an area Hezbollah believes any Israeli land invasion could begin.
The group, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982 and the only Lebanese group to keep its weapons after the 1975-90 civil war, has underpinned its popularity among many Shi'ites but its decision to enter the Iran war has drawn criticism from within the Shi'ite community.
Pressure, response, and dynamics
Hezbollah has been greatly weakened during the 2024 war and has faced pressure from the Lebanese state to disarm, with the Beirut government last week banning Hezbollah's military activities, the article said.
Adding to pressures, its Syrian ally President Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December of that year, severing the main supply route from Iran.
An Israeli security source said there was no sign Hezbollah was looking to de-escalate and that, while Israel had eliminated a few very senior commanders, the group seemed to be managing to stabilize its ranks by appointing deputies (two Lebanese sources said four deputies had been appointed for every Hezbollah commander).
Since March 2 the Israeli military says it has struck hundreds of Hezbollah targets, launched airstrikes in the south, Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, and the eastern Bekaa Valley, sent more soldiers into south Lebanon to establish forward defensive positions, and two Israeli soldiers have been killed in Lebanon; the article also noted that in 2024 Israel booby-trapped hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah and penetrated the group's private phone network, and the sources said Hezbollah was avoiding devices that could be susceptible to eavesdropping.
