Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson Says Bitcoin Faces Near-Term Pressure As Global Liquidity Tightens

Bitcoin is facing near-term pressure as global liquidity tightens, Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson said, warning that the squeeze could weigh on bitcoin and other risk assets before expected U.S. policy action provides relief.

“Bitcoin faces near-term pressure as liquidity tightens, Hilbert Group CIO says Russell Thompson warned of a sharp tightening in global liquidity that could weigh on risk assets and bitcoin in the near term, before expected U”

@coindesk

Thompson said he expects global liquidity to tighten by as much as 25%, creating “near-term headheads for bitcoin,” according to the CoinDesk report.

@coindesk

In the same account, Thompson argued that even a quick geopolitical resolution in Iran is unlikely to sustain a rally in risk assets without policy support, writing, “Even with a resolution quickly in Iran, I do not believe that risk assets will rally for any sustainable time without outside help.”

CoinDesk also described how liquidity conditions have stabilized in parts of the financial sector following the rollout of the reserve maturity program (RMP), while a broader tightening of 20%–25% is approaching.

The CoinMarketCap version of the story similarly frames the issue as a “meaningful drag” from broader tightening now underway, again tying the outlook to Thompson’s expectations for U.S. tools.

CoinMarketCap also repeats Thompson’s view that market participants are placing too much weight on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity, while the U.S. Treasury has capacity to inject funds into both markets and the real economy.

Bloomingbit, meanwhile, echoes the same core forecast, saying Thompson expects global liquidity could shrink by as much as 25% and that this could make it difficult for the rally in risk assets to continue.

Thompson’s liquidity warning is paired with a specific menu of policy responses he expects U.S. authorities to deploy, including changes to bank capital rules, Treasury cash management, and interest-rate cuts.

CoinDesk says Thompson expects the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to step in with tools including “supplementary leverage ratio reform,” “Treasury General Account drawdown,” and “interest rate cuts.”

bloomingbit

CoinDesk explains that the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is “a banking regulation that sets how much capital large banks must hold against their total leverage,” and it describes the Treasury General Account (TGA) as “the U.S. Treasury’s main cash account at the Federal Reserve.”

In the CoinMarketCap account, Thompson similarly identifies “a reform of the supplementary leverage ratio,” followed by “a drawdown of the Treasury General Account,” and then “a series of interest rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair.”

CoinMarketCap adds that when the Treasury General Account is spent down, “money flows into the broader financial system,” reinforcing the liquidity-transmission mechanism Thompson is emphasizing.

Both CoinDesk and CoinMarketCap also connect the policy path to the timing of regulatory clarity, with CoinMarketCap stating Thompson expects “legal clarity on key crypto regulatory measures before the summer congressional recess.”

Bloomingbit’s write-up, while shorter, keeps the same structure by stating that even if geopolitical risks ease, “risk-asset gains, including Bitcoin's, will be hard to sustain without policy support,” and it points to improving liquidity conditions as the trigger for a renewed advance.

The liquidity thesis is presented against a detailed recent trading history for bitcoin, including an all-time high, a drawdown, and a later stabilization phase.

“He warned the squeeze could weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets in the near term before U”

CoinMarketCap

CoinDesk says bitcoin hit an all-time high above “$126,000 in October 2025,” then entered “a sustained drawdown through the end of the year and into early 2026.”

By February, CoinDesk reports prices had fallen to “roughly $63,000,” describing it as “a decline of about 50% from the peak.”

CoinDesk further states that bitcoin is “currently trading around $75,600,” placing it “significantly off its peak but no longer in freefall.”

The CoinDesk narrative also ties the earlier sell-off to “weaker demand, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a more risk-off macro backdrop,” and it says “BTC underperforming equities in some stretches.”

CoinMarketCap’s version focuses less on price levels and more on the expected policy and liquidity path, but it still reiterates Thompson’s medium-term forecast that bitcoin should finish 2026 “significantly higher” than current levels.

Bloomingbit likewise emphasizes the conditional nature of the outlook, stating that if liquidity conditions improve, bitcoin could “resume its rally by year-end and potentially set a new all-time high in 2027.”

Beyond liquidity, Thompson’s outlook in the sources also links bitcoin’s medium-term path to regulatory clarity and the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet trajectory.

CoinDesk says Thompson “anticipates legal clarity on key measures before the summer recess” and also expects “a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet as disinflationary pressures build.”

@coindesk

CoinMarketCap similarly states Thompson expects “legal clarity on key crypto regulatory measures before the summer congressional recess,” framing the timing as a near-term catalyst.

In CoinDesk’s account, Thompson also argues that “Markets remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity,” while “the U.S. Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds into both the real economy and financial markets.”

CoinDesk adds that “With Treasury leadership experienced in deploying such tools, he expects a more proactive approach,” tying the policy response to institutional capability.

The sources also include a conditional macro backdrop that could complicate the path, with CoinDesk saying “Higher oil prices, he argued, could ultimately weigh on growth,” and it also mentions “a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit” as factors that “may add to the disinflationary backdrop.”

Bloomingbit’s write-up condenses the message into a single conditional: it says “Bitcoin Faces Near-Term Pressure as Global Liquidity Tightens,” but it also says “Upside Seen if Conditions Improve,” with the improvement tied to liquidity and policy support.

While the core forecast is consistent across the three crypto outlets—near-term pressure from tightening liquidity and a potential medium-term rebound—the sources diverge in how they frame the drivers and the market’s current state.

“Bitcoin Faces Near-Term Pressure as Global Liquidity Tightens, Upside Seen if Conditions Improve Summary - CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin could face short-term downside pressure as global liquidity contracts”

bloomingbit

CoinDesk provides the most granular market narrative, describing bitcoin’s “sharp volatility” and the shift “from late-2025 exuberance to a more fragile, macro-driven market,” then giving specific price points including “$126,000,” “roughly $63,000,” and “$75,600.”

bloomingbit

CoinMarketCap, by contrast, largely strips out the price-history detail and instead emphasizes the policy mechanism and the argument that “most market participants are placing too much weight on the Federal Reserve as the primary source of liquidity.”

Bloomingbit follows CoinDesk’s structure but presents it as a shorter “Summary,” explicitly stating that CoinDesk reported on April 20 that Thompson expects global liquidity to contract by as much as 25%.

The three sources also differ in the way they present Thompson’s conditionality: CoinDesk quotes him directly about Iran—“Even with a resolution quickly in Iran, I do not believe that risk assets will rally for any sustainable time without outside help”—while CoinMarketCap uses the same idea without repeating the full quote in the excerpt.

Despite these differences, all three converge on a medium- to long-term bullish path, with CoinDesk saying Thompson expects bitcoin to be “significantly higher” by year-end and potentially “new highs by 2027,” and CoinMarketCap saying liquidity could bottom around 2027.

Bloomingbit also matches the year-end and 2027 language, saying bitcoin could “resume its rally by year-end and potentially set a new all-time high in 2027.”