How high could oil prices go – and what might the global economic fallout be?
Image: The Guardian

How high could oil prices go – and what might the global economic fallout be?

09 March, 2026.Iran-Israel.1 sources

Key Takeaways

  • Oil price has soared past $100 a barrel due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
  • Prolonged conflict could worsen living standards globally and trigger a renewed inflation shock.
  • Instability in the vital energy-exporting region heightens global economic uncertainty and downside risks.

Energy, economy and policy

Talk of recession has returned, the article says, quoting Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s chief economist in the UK, and warning that higher borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty are likely to hit investment and global trade, risking recession in already fragile economies.

Fears over the global economy have been stoked by the oil price soaring past $100 a barrel as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran

The GuardianThe Guardian

It reports that G7 countries stand ready to release emergency oil reserves; the US is described as largely energy-independent despite depleting its domestic strategic oil reserve, and China has amassed vast stockpiles.

Image from The Guardian
The GuardianThe Guardian

The Guardian says governments will face pressure to boost energy security and accelerate decarbonisation while also considering costly emergency support for households and businesses, with borrowing and debt levels stretched.

It quotes Jordan Rochester of Mizuho saying, "The problem now is how much this will cost governments, with energy support packages being floated as ideas."

The article concludes: "This may be a war, but it’s also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we’ve ever seen in modern history."

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