Israel and the United States Attack Iran, Displacing 3.2 Million and Crippling Global Aid Efforts.

The Israel-United States military operation against Iran has triggered severe global economic disruption through dramatic oil price volatility.

“Sam Vigersky is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations”

Council on Foreign Relations

Following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, crude oil prices experienced extreme market turbulence.

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Brent crude jumped 21 percent by March 6 and surged close to $110 per barrel on March 9 before sharply declining.

Qatari officials have warned that prices could potentially top $150 per barrel.

These energy market shocks are compounding multiple existing global crises.

Humanitarian organizations face increased costs at every step of aid delivery.

Transporting medicines by road and running diesel generators in health clinics are particularly affected.

The economic consequences are pushing vulnerable populations toward emergency conditions.

Those already in emergency situations are being pushed toward famine.

Lebanon is experiencing a catastrophic displacement crisis as military escalation triggers mass population movement.

Before the conflict, Lebanon was already reeling from a historic economic collapse.

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Aid groups first warned about potential humanitarian fallout, with Mercy Corps projecting up to 500,000 Lebanese could be displaced.

Israeli military evacuation orders and air strikes across southern Beirut suburbs have triggered rapid displacement.

UNHCR now estimates close to 700,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon.

Hundreds of schools and public buildings have been converted into shelters.

Many facilities are stretched beyond capacity, forcing people to sleep on streets.

A secondary displacement crisis is emerging as Syrian refugees flee back to Syria.

European leaders are alarmed about potential massive refugee crisis from Iran.

“Sam Vigersky is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations”

Council on Foreign Relations

With Iran's population of 90 million, even a 10% outflow would represent 9 million refugees.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Iran 'cannot become another Syria'.

Efforts are underway to prevent new refugee waves from reaching Europe.

Approximately 100,000 people have fled Tehran so far.

No confirmed reports of significant cross-border outflows at this time.

UNHCR has maintained six field offices in Iran since 1984.

The agency is well-positioned to respond but faces significant challenges.

UNHCR has historically supported millions of Afghan refugees in Iran.

The agency also deals with forced returns of Afghan refugees from last year.

Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe has been compounded by the latest escalation.

Israel's closure of all border crossings triggered severe aid shortages and price surges.

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Two-thirds of Gaza's population already live in displacement camps.

While Karem Abu Salem crossing has reopened, Rafah crossing remains closed.

Medical evacuations have been suspended.

UN can now bring in only half the fuel needed for basic operations.

The Middle East was already managing 25 million displaced people before the conflict.

Existing displacement, new conflicts, and aid restrictions create overlapping humanitarian emergencies.

The global humanitarian response system is severely weakened by recent U.S. policy decisions.

“Sam Vigersky is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations”

Council on Foreign Relations

Trump administration cut 60% of U.S. funding for UNHCR and fired experts in State Department's Bureau of Population, Migration, and Refugees.

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These cuts impair U.S. ability to manage security implications of mass displacement.

The cuts come at the worst moment as the world faces a polycrisis of displacement and need.

The U.S. has $5.5 billion appropriated to WFP, UNHCR, and NGOs.

This represents less than half of what the U.S. historically devoted to international humanitarian response.

The funding gap could determine whether millions fall into full-scale catastrophe.