Keir Starmer Faces May 1 Local Elections Test as Labour Defends 2,550 Seats

Britain’s Labour government under Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces what EFE described as “el primer test electoral” for Starmer in England’s local by-elections and council elections scheduled for May 1, with voters set to choose the composition of 23 municipal councils.

“"Do you know the result which is keeping them awake in Number 10”

BBC

The EFE report says “Más de diez millones de personas” will vote on “este 1 de mayo” for those 23 councils, the first renewal since 2021, when “los conservadores obtuvieron sólidos resultados” under then-leader Boris Johnson.

BBC

It adds that there will also be direct elections for mayors in English areas including North Tyneside, Hull & East Yorkshire, Doncaster, Cambridgeshire & Peterborough, West of England and Greater Lancashire, while “No habrá elecciones locales en el resto del Reino Unido -Escocia, Gales e Irlanda del Norte- ni tampoco en Londres.”

EFE also places a separate parliamentary by-election in the constituency of Runcorn & Helsby to replace Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who “dimitió en marzo después de ser condenado a diez meses de prisión” for punching a man in the street.

The same EFE piece frames the vote as a major test not only for Starmer but also for the new leader of the “tory” party, Kemi Badenoch, and for Nigel Farage’s Reform.

In parallel, the London Evening Standard reports that Labour is defending “más de 2,550 seats” on “May 7,” spanning local authority representatives across England and parliamentary representatives in Wales and Scotland.

The London Evening Standard also quotes Labour mayor Kim McGuinness telling Times Radio that if the polls are correct, Starmer will have to “take it as a wake-up call” and change the direction of his government.

A set of voting-intention figures in the EFE report shows Reform UK leading ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, with YouGov polling “entre un total de 2.012 personas entre el 21 y el 22 de abril.”

EFE says Reform sits first with “25 % de apoyo,” “dos puntos más” than in another YouGov survey dated “el 14 de abril,” while Labour has “23 % de respaldo” and the Conservatives “20 %,” each down by one point from that earlier survey.

Infobae

The EFE piece links the election timing to “una inquietud por la marcha de la economía,” citing “el bajo crecimiento,” “el estado de los servicios públicos” and an inflation rate that “no baja del 2 %, el objetivo del Banco de Inglaterra.”

It quotes LSE government professor Sara Hobolt saying, “Nos encontramos en un período particularmente tumultuoso en la política británica” and that “Reform está creciendo en las encuestas, apoderándose del primer puesto como el partido con mayor intención de voto.”

Hobolt also adds that even with only “10 meses” in government, “tanto el Partido Laborista como el Conservador están en declive,” and that Reform’s rise could be a threat to both parties.

The London Evening Standard adds a different forecast frame, saying a “polling guru” predicts Labour will lose “75% of council seats,” and it quotes Lord Hayward describing that prediction as “bad news” for the Prime Minister.

It also lays out specific seat-change expectations attributed to Lord Hayward, including that the Greens “are set to make gains of around 150 seats,” Reform UK “will gain some 1,550 seats,” and the Liberal Democrats “are set to make gains of around 150 seats.”

Another report, from ucvradio.pe, says a YouGov model predicts the Greens are expected to win the largest share of votes in “all four of London’s councils,” while Reform will take the largest share in “three boroughs.”

That same ucvradio.pe piece says Labour is on track for “its worst result in London in 50 years,” and it quotes Patrick English, YouGov’s head of elections, saying, “This broadly reflects what we’re seeing at the national level: a huge split in the vote among all these different parties.”

Beyond election numbers, Le Monde diplomatique describes a shift in “l’industrie de l’influence” toward Labour as the party moved closer to power after July 2024.

“Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, became on Friday, February 27, the new Member of Parliament for Gorton and Denton, in the Manchester suburb, with 41% of the vote”

La Croix

The French outlet says that “Chez les travaillistes nouvellement élus en juillet 2024, ils sont au moins trente-quatre à avoir occupé des fonctions de ce type,” referring to roles in lobbying, public relations, charities, NGOs, and lobbying firms, and it frames the trend as Labour drawing in influence networks.

It adds that “À mesure que le Labour s’est rapproché du pouvoir, l’industrie de l’influence s’est rapprochée du Labour,” and it says that at Labour’s October 2023 congress in Liverpool, “on ne pouvait pas faire un pas sans tomber sur un lobbyiste.”

Le Monde diplomatique names specific figures, including “Mme Freddie Cook,” described as having been a parliamentary assistant for “plus de cinq ans” before joining “Hawthorn Advisors,” and it also says she left for “Snapchat.”

It also identifies “M. Samuel White,” described as “chef de cabinet du leader travailliste Keir Starmer entre septembre 2021 et novembre 2022,” who then went to “Flint Global,” a consultancy led by “M. James Purnell,” described as an ex-minister of “M. Gordon Brown.”

The outlet quotes a promise attributed to Starmer at a “forum des affaires” event during the October 2023 congress, saying, “Si nous arrivons au gouvernement, vous y entrerez avec nous.”

It also includes Flint Global’s claim that it offers clients “dont Meta, Amazon et Uber” “une « connaissance inégalée des rouages internes du Labour ».”

Le Monde diplomatique further describes that Starmer’s “cabinet fantôme” included people with “sans grande expérience du pouvoir” who were already working with seconded employees from “HSBC, NatWest, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) et autres sociétés d’expertise-conseil.”

The Guardian portrays London as Labour’s “final stronghold” and argues that housing and the party’s relationship with voters in the capital are central to why Labour faces “wipeout” in the run-up to the next Thursday local elections.

It says “London is where Keir Starmer, David Lammy and Wes Streeting have seats,” and it describes how Labour’s home turf is “starting to collapse” as the party prepares for results that pollsters project as its worst in “50 years.”

La Libre.be

The Guardian quotes a Labour campaign message from Andy Burnham, telling footsoldiers, “Don’t go into the last two weeks with your shoulders down,” and “Get your shoulders up.”

It also includes a quoted assessment from “one council leader” that Thursday is “the biggest fight of my political life,” and it says the Greens “may well win the mayoralities of Lewisham and Hackney.”

The Guardian’s argument ties political consequences to policy and voter trust, stating that in canvassing, voters said they “couldn’t vote for a party complicit in the destruction of Gaza,” and it says voters also objected to “spouted Faragisms about immigration.”

It quotes a senior Labour councillor saying, “All our chickens are coming home to roost,” and it says the Greens’ campaign focuses on “the need for a fair housing system.”

The Guardian also frames the housing history as a bargain Labour made with working-class Londoners, saying, “back us and we’ll house you,” and it says Labour “came through on its side of the bargain.”

In a separate report about London’s electoral dynamics, ucvradio.pe says a YouGov MRP model forecasts Labour will top the vote in London but at “just 26 percent of the capital’s votes,” and it says the Greens are forecast at “22 percent” and Reform UK at “14 percent.”

It also quotes YouGov’s Patrick English describing the “huge split in the vote,” and it cites an Ipsos UK poll that found “49 percent of the capital’s voters were considering backing the Greens on May 7.”

Across multiple outlets, the stakes for Labour are framed through the rise of Reform UK and the Greens, with specific campaign claims and electoral consequences tied to May 7 local elections.

“Josefina Dowbor Musinicki, the Argentine who lives in the United Kingdom and will run in the London elections”

La Nación

The London Evening Standard says the Greens are expected to be the “main beneficiary” of Starmer’s “nosediving popularity,” and it reports that Reform UK is expected to be the “main beneficiary outside of the capital” at the expense of both major parties.

La Nación

It also quotes the Prime Minister’s political spokesman saying, “This local election comes down to a simple choice: Labour on your side, with your local Labour council working in partnership with a Labour Government, or Nigel Farage and Reform who would put your family, your NHS and your community at risk.”

In a separate report, La Libre.be says the Greens’ campaign launch on April 9 will be fought “between Reform and the Greens,” and it quotes Zack Polanski positioning his party as “the only political force capable of countering the rise of Reform UK.”

La Libre.be also reports that Polanski said, “One must understand that if people worry about how to put food on their table and heat their homes, talking about other topics may seem a bit distant to them, especially the climate crisis,” and it quotes him calling for “strengthen sanctions against Israel, end our trade deal with Israel and do everything to stop the genocide.”

The same outlet says Polanski targets Labour by claiming it has been “bought” by “oil and gas companies, by the arms sector, or by private health care,” and it says he argues Labour would “soften his reform of workers’ rights” and refuse “the introduction of rent controls in London.”

Meanwhile, Les Echos reports a by-election result in Gorton and Denton, south of Manchester, where Hannah Spencer, a “34-year-old local councillor and plumber by trade,” won 41% of the vote, with Reform UK on 29% and Labour on 25%.

Les Echos says the result is a “blow” to Keir Starmer and “confirmation that for Labour the electoral threat is not only on the right but also on the left,” and it quotes Labour’s Anna Turley calling the result “clearly disappointing,” while saying new parties offer only “a 'policy of anger and easy answers.'”

It also reports that Spencer received support of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and that Starmer vowed on Friday that he would “continue to fight.”

Finally, ucvradio.pe says a separate Ipsos UK poll found “44 percent of voters in the capital were considering backing the Labour,” while “35 percent backed the Liberal Democrats,” and it adds that “16 percent could support Reform UK,” underscoring the competitive environment Labour must navigate.