Crypto12 May, 20262 min read
Long-Term Bitcoin Buyers Near 4 Million BTC as Available Supply Shrinks
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Conviction buyers hold about 4 million BTC, up 300% since end-2025. Available supply shrinks as long-term holders accumulate, tightening market structure.
Conviction Buyers Tighten Supply
Bitcoin’s available supply is shrinking as long-term “conviction buyers” have surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a 300% increase since the end of 2025, according to BitGo data cited by Bitfinex. CoinDesk reported that the massive “conviction” capital is valued at just over $320 billion based on bitcoin’s current price of roughly $80,000.
CoinDesk also said the total amount of bitcoin in circulation is 20.03 million, and that long-term buyers’ holdings are not part of the estimated 5.6 million BTC that has been inactive for over a decade, according to Jameson Lopp. Mati Greenspan, a market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, said, “Historically, periods of tightening liquid supply combined with renewed demand have created the conditions for bitcoin’s most aggressive upside expansions.”
Derivatives vs Spot Demand
While bitcoin rose back above $80,000, Wintermute cautioned that the advance looked like a short squeeze rather than expanding spot buying, with Cryptopolitan reporting on May 12 that Wintermute assessed the move as “largely a short squeeze triggered by the liquidation of short positions in derivatives markets.” DigitalToday reported that over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest rose by about $10 billion to $58 billion from $48 billion, while spot trading volume fell to its lowest level in 2 years.
DigitalToday said Wintermute pointed to perpetual futures funding rates that remain below normal levels and warned that “Without spot-led demand, this rally could reverse sharply.” The same report said a total of $623 million has recently flowed into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, including Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF drawing $194 million in its first month with no net outflows.
Regulatory Catalyst and Market Pressure
In Washington, a potential catalyst is tied to a Senate Banking Committee vote on the CLARITY Act, which would establish a definitive market structure for digital assets and classify bitcoin as a commodity. AD HOC NEWS said Citigroup linked its $143,000 price target for bitcoin directly to passage of the bill, while prediction markets put the bill’s odds of success at 62%.
“The bill would establish a definitive market structure for digital assets and classify bitcoin as a commodity.”
AD HOC NEWS also described macro pressure, saying U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% in April, the highest reading in three years, driven largely by elevated energy costs tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. It added that bitcoin was testing support near $80,000 after falling below its 200-day moving average, now around $82,430, as institutional demand from American spot ETFs drew $2.44 billion in April alone.