Oil prices ‘could breach $100 a barrel within days’ amid supply disruption from Iran war

Goldman Sachs warned that global oil prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month if there is no solution to the severe disruption of crude flows through the strait of Hormuz.

“Global oil prices could breach the $100 (£74) a barrel mark within days, and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude flows through the strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs has warned”

The Guardian

The bank said oil exports via the trade route have fallen further than it had expected after the US-Israeli attack on Iran a little over a week ago, with only 10% of cargoes that usually transit the waterway able to pass versus Goldman’s prior expectation of 15%.

The Guardian

Goldman added its analysis shows the impact is about 17 times larger than the April 2022 hit to Russian production.

It said prices would likely exceed $100 next week if no signs of solutions emerge and could surpass the 2008 and 2022 peaks if flows remain depressed throughout March.

Market movements already reflect the shock.

The international benchmark briefly climbed above $120 in 2022 and reached highs of $145 in 2008.

The Guardian

Oil pushed above $90 late last week.

US crude rose $10 on Friday alone.

US crude traded at more than $94 on IG’s weekend markets.

Overall, oil prices have risen by more than 50% so far this year after beginning 2026 at about $60 a barrel.

Qatar’s energy minister warned that if the war continued unabated all Gulf energy exporters would be forced to shut down production within weeks.

Qatar’s energy minister warned oil would rise to $150.

Oil storage facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are reaching their limits.

That could potentially force major oilfields to shut if crude cannot be exported via the strait of Hormuz.

Security and insurance risks are keeping ships out of the strait, with hundreds of tankers attempting to transit halting after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards threatened to set ablaze any vessel using the route.

“Global oil prices could breach the $100 (£74) a barrel mark within days, and reach $150 a barrel by the end of the month, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude flows through the strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs has warned”

The Guardian

Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said exports will not resume until shipowners, operators and insurers feel sufficiently safe from threats posed by Iranian warships, aircraft, missiles, drones, speedboats and naval mines.

Seigle warned a deficit of about 20m barrels per day is hitting global market balances with no sign of relief.

He said measures proposed by the White House — rerouting Saudi crude via the Red Sea, drawing on emergency US crude reserves or extending government-backed insurance to shipping companies — would not be enough to offset that loss.