Report Warns Extreme Weather Disrupts Elections And Referendums Across 52 Countries

A new report published Wednesday warns that floods, fires and extreme weather increasingly pose a threat to democracy by disrupting elections and referendums across the world.

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The analysis, from Stockholm-based democracy and electoral assistance institute International IDEA, says that over the past two decades at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries have been disrupted by natural hazards.

The Guardian

Between 2006 and 2025, it adds, at least 26 elections and referendums have been postponed, either fully or in part, due to natural disasters.

In 2024 alone, the report says extreme weather disrupted 23 elections in 18 countries, with impacts ranging from damaged infrastructure to displaced voters and last-minute changes to electoral processes.

The report is entitled "Managing Natural Hazards and Climate Risks in Elections" and was published to coincide with Earth Day on April 22.

International IDEA frames the problem in terms of operational strain, saying in a statement that "From hurricanes and floods to wildfires and heatwaves, these events are damaging infrastructure, displacing voters and forcing last-minute changes to electoral processes."

The Guardian describes the findings as the first global analysis of how natural hazards are affecting elections, emphasizing that elections are increasingly shaped by climate-related impacts as well as political forces.

The report’s timeline links climate-related disruptions to specific electoral episodes, including Hurricane Sandy’s effect on the 2012 US federal election and a 2023 quake on Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections.

It also points to an intense heatwave on 2025 Philippine national and local elections, floods and landslides on Bosnia’s 2024 local elections, and cyclones on 2019 elections in Mozambique.

The Guardian

International IDEA’s analysis describes how these hazards can force changes to electoral logistics and timelines, and it highlights that the risk is not confined to one type of disaster.

The Guardian adds further detail by describing Mozambique’s 2019 election, when Cyclone Idai submerged thousands of houses, schools, power lines and roads and people were forced to move to safer locations.

In that case, the report states that the events "affected the results of the presidential election and the distribution of legislative and provincial seats".

The Guardian also describes Senegal’s parliamentary election in November 2024, when flooding displaced people and firefighters were required to help bring election observers to polling stations.

In the Philippines, the Guardian reports that intense heat meant that some vote-counting machines overheated on election day and ejected previously accepted ballots.

The report’s examples also include heat as a recurring problem, with the Guardian noting "at least 10 elections since 2022 affected by very hot weather."

The report’s recommendations center on timing elections and building contingency capacity, and it quotes Sarah Birch of King’s College London on the need to schedule voting when disasters are least likely.

“Democracy is under mounting threat from the climate crisis, with new analysis documenting how elections are increasingly shaped not only by political forces but also by floods, wildfires and extreme weather”

The Guardian

Birch tells reporters that "Elections should be held when disasters are least likely," and she adds that "in some cases, electoral management bodies will also need to consider alterations to election timelines to reduce the likelihood of disruption by short-lived disasters."

The Guardian reinforces the same point, noting that even the US was still intent on staging elections in November, during its hurricane season.

The report also describes a concrete example from Canada, where the Alberta provincial legislature has moved its fixed election date from May, during wildfire season, to October, as of 2027.

The Guardian further says the report advocates for election organizers to work closely with meteorological experts, environmental protection bodies, and disaster relief and humanitarian agencies.

It adds that election staff in Peru have received training in disaster risk management to help them respond to disruptions on voting day.

Ferran Martínez i Coma, a professor of government at Australia’s Griffith University, is quoted saying: "As natural hazards increase, training and contingency planning is more important than ever. Preparation is key to the integrity and resilience of the elections."

International IDEA’s authors also call for countries to consider including electoral processes in national climate adaptation plans and disaster risk reduction strategies.

While all three outlets describe the same International IDEA report and its headline figures, they emphasize different aspects of the threat and the evidence.

ABS-CBN News and Africanews both foreground the scale of disruption, stating that at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries were disrupted by natural hazards over the past two decades, and they repeat that 26 elections and referendums were postponed between 2006 and 2025.

The Guardian

ABS-CBN News also highlights the report’s Earth Day publication timing, saying it was published to coincide with Earth Day on April 22, and it quotes International IDEA’s statement about infrastructure damage, displaced voters, and last-minute changes.

Africanews similarly ties the report to Earth Day and includes the same International IDEA statement, but it adds a specific example about Senegal’s parliamentary elections, saying flooding displaced over 56,000 people and that firefighters had to shuffle evacued residents to polling stations by boat.

The Guardian, by contrast, frames the analysis as a global assessment of how elections are shaped by climate impacts, and it adds detail about heat and technology, including vote-counting machines overheating in the Philippines.

It also expands on the Mozambique case by describing Cyclone Idai submerging houses, schools, power lines and roads, and it includes the report’s language about effects on presidential results and seat distribution.

The Guardian’s account also includes a forecast that pressure on fragile democratic systems is forecast to grow, and it notes that the findings are the first global analysis of how natural hazards are affecting elections.

Across outlets, Sarah Birch’s quote about timing elections appears, but the Guardian adds the contextual line about the US staging elections in November during hurricane season.

Beyond election-day disruption, the report warns that extreme weather can produce longer-term damage to democratic life by deepening social vulnerabilities.

“Extreme climate events are increasingly threatening democracy, with at least 94 elections and referendums in 52 countries disrupted by natural hazards over the past two decades, a report published Wednesday said”

Africanews

International IDEA says that "Precarity and trauma from natural hazards can exacerbate affected citizens' existing grievances, facilitate the spread of conspiracy theories and impose additional hardship on society's most vulnerable people," and it links those outcomes to the resilience of democratic systems.

The Guardian

The report also states that "As climate-related risks intensify, the pressure on already fragile democratic systems is expected to grow."

In the ABS-CBN and Africanews accounts, the report’s authors argue that democratic institutions, particularly elections, should be treated as "critical infrastructure that is susceptible to environmental threats and in need of special protections".

The Guardian adds that the findings forecast pressure on fragile democratic systems, particularly in Africa and Asia, as risks intensify.

It also describes how the report’s analysis includes more than 100 climate-related crises, including Mozambique’s 2019 election and Senegal’s November 2024 flooding, and it ties those crises to outcomes like changes in seat distribution and the need for firefighters to assist election observers.

The Guardian’s account of heat in the Philippines shows how extreme weather can affect election technology and ballot handling, describing vote-counting machines overheating and ejecting previously accepted ballots.

The report’s call for action is framed as integrating electoral processes into national climate adaptation plans and disaster risk reduction strategies, with the authors calling on countries to consider those steps.