Santiment Says Bitcoin Holders Shift From Extreme Pessimism to Ultra FOMO as BTC Nears $80,000

Bitcoin’s price action is being framed as both a near-term surge and a broader lag versus traditional assets, depending on the metric and time window cited in the reports.

“Bitcoin cae 20% mientras el oro sube 9% con ballenas frenando compras”

CoinMarketCap

Cointelegraph says Bitcoin is “up 8.62% over the past 30 days” and describes a setup where “large investors accumulate while smaller investors take profits” has “historically been followed by further price gains.”

CoinMarketCap

It also notes that Santiment said Bitcoin holders’ sentiment swung from “extreme pessimism” on Monday to “ultra FOMO mode” on Thursday, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Fear” territory with “a score of 39 on Friday.”

Cointelegraph adds that Santiment said Bitcoin passing above $80,000, “a level not seen since Jan. 30,” would be significant in reviving trader interest, and it quotes Santiment’s view that “it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly.”

In contrast, CoinMarketCap and TradingView emphasize a different snapshot: CoinMarketCap reports “Bitcoin cae 20%” while gold rises “9%,” and TradingView says Bitcoin is down “20%” and “cotizando alrededor de 88.000 dólares el miércoles.”

TradingView also ties the divergence to correlation, stating that “La correlación entre Bitcoin y las criptomonedas en comparación con otros sectores importantes todavía se está rezagando,” while Santiment analysts say “de cara a 2026, seguirá habiendo una oportunidad para que las criptomonedas se pongan al día.”

Beyond price, the articles place emphasis on who is buying and how that behavior is changing, especially among large holders.

Cointelegraph reports that Bitwise’s head of research for Europe, Andre Dragosch, pointed to “a pickup in recent demand from institutional investors,” and it quotes Dragosch: “Institutional demand for Bitcoin is clearly accelerating,” in an X post on Friday.

Cointelegraph

It also says Santiment described a sentiment shift from “extreme pessimism” to “ultra FOMO mode,” while still warning that “overall crypto market sentiment is still lagging based on broader market measures.”

CoinMarketCap and TradingView both return to the theme of whales and large holders, saying Santiment data show that “las ballenas ralentizaron sus compras en la segunda mitad de 2025” while small holders dominated aggressive accumulation.

TradingView frames the same idea as “Grandes holders acumulando criptomonedas de nuevo podría ser la primera señal de un cambio de tendencia,” and it repeats Santiment’s historical rule that “la mejor fórmula para que un patrón bajista se revierta a uno alcista es cuando las billeteras grandes acumulan y los minoristas venden masivamente.”

CoinMarketCap adds a specific long-term holding metric, saying long-term Bitcoin holders “dejaron de vender tras seis meses de reducción de posiciones,” with holdings falling “de 14.8 millones de monedas a mediados de julio a 14.3 millones en diciembre,” and it describes that pause as “la primera desaceleración en la distribución desde el verano.”

It also cites Nansen data, saying “las direcciones activas de Bitcoin aumentaron un 5.51% en las últimas 24 horas” while “el volumen de transacciones cayó casi un 30%,” and it calls the divergence between activity and transaction count “señales mixtas.”

In the Cointelegraph report, the whale narrative is paired with a near-term technical threshold, where Santiment says passing above $80,000—“a level not seen since Jan. 30”—would revive trader interest, while MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe says Bitcoin has “enough room” to continue surging toward $86,000 and warns it must hold at least $75,000 to maintain momentum.

One of the clearest causal narratives across the crypto articles is that capital is rotating from metals back into digital assets after a short squeeze, with multiple named figures describing the flow.

“Las criptomonedas rezagadas frente al oro y las acciones, pero 2026 abre la puerta al repunte El mercado de criptomonedas estará en caída en 2026 a pesar de que otros activos importantes están ganando; sin embargo, habrá una oportunidad para que las criptomonedas se pongan al día en el nuevo año, según la plataforma de inteligencia de mercado, Santiment”

TradingView

Cointelegraph references “Related: BlackRock drives 7-day Bitcoin ETF inflow streak as BTC nears $80,000,” tying institutional vehicles to the move toward the $80,000 level, while it also discusses how traders may be cautious during overheated sentiment.

CoinMarketCap and TradingView both attribute the shift to Garrett Jin, identified as “ex CEO del desaparecido exchange de criptomonedas BitForex,” who suggested that traders have begun rotating capital from other sectors back to crypto.

CoinMarketCap quotes Jin saying, “Jin afirmó el martes que el short squeeze en los metales concluyó como se esperaba, con capital ahora fluyendo hacia los activos digitales,” and TradingView repeats the same idea with Jin’s quote: “El short squeeze en metales ha terminado como se esperaba. El capital está empezando a fluir hacia las criptomonedas.”

TradingView also includes Jin’s additional remark in response to a user question about whether traders in precious metals also buy crypto, where Jin said: “El capital es el mismo. Siempre vende caro y compra barato.”

The TradingView piece then connects this rotation to on-chain activity, citing Nansen data that “el número de direcciones activas de Bitcoin ha aumentado un 5,51% en las últimas 24 horas, mientras que las transacciones han disminuido casi un 30%,” and it uses that to characterize the network’s engagement as mixed.

CoinMarketCap similarly describes the divergence between activity and transaction count as “señales mixtas sobre el compromiso de la red,” while also noting that “Los grandes actores del mercado, incluidas las ballenas y los grandes tenedores, influyen en la liquidez, la psicología de los inversores y el comportamiento general del mercado.”

Cointelegraph, meanwhile, frames the same cautious dynamic in sentiment terms, saying “Market participants are often cautious during overheated conditions” and that sharp rallies in “extremely bullish sentiment can be viewed as fragile.”

While the articles discuss immediate signals like whale behavior and sentiment, they also converge on a longer-horizon framing that emphasizes 2026 as a period when crypto could catch up, even if it is lagging now.

CoinMarketCap says analysts projected that “los mercados de criptomonedas continuarán debilitándose hasta 2026” despite gains in traditional assets, and it adds that “2026 presenta oportunidades para que Bitcoin cierre la brecha de rendimiento frente al oro y las acciones.”

CoinMarketCap

TradingView echoes that longer view, stating that “El mercado de criptomonedas estará en caída en 2026” even as “habrá una oportunidad para que las criptomonedas se pongan al día en el nuevo año,” and it attributes the view to Santiment.

In both Spanish-language pieces, the comparison is anchored to the same macro window: “Desde principios de noviembre, el oro ha subido un 9%, el S&P 500 ha ganado un 1% y Bitcoin ha bajado un 20%,” with TradingView adding that Bitcoin is “cotizando alrededor de 88.000 dólares el miércoles.”

CoinMarketCap also says Santiment analysts argued that “de cara a 2026, las criptomonedas conservan oportunidades para ponerse al día con los mercados tradicionales que se recuperaron tras la venta masiva de noviembre,” and it ties that to historical patterns where large-holder accumulation flips bearish patterns to bullish ones.

TradingView quotes Santiment’s rule directly: “Históricamente, la mejor fórmula para que un patrón bajista se revierta a uno alcista es cuando las billeteras grandes acumulan y los minoristas venden masivamente,” and it uses that to interpret the renewed accumulation by large holders.

The articles also include a named technical-cycle voice: CyrilXBT, described as “el inversor y analista de mercado CyrilXBT,” who said the market is in a “posicionamiento clásico de fin de ciclo antes de un cambio” and that when liquidity conditions change and Bitcoin breaks key levels, “el oro debería enfriarse mientras Bitcoin lidera, Ethereum sigue y las altcoins se activan.”

Cointelegraph similarly includes a forward-looking threshold approach, quoting Santiment that Bitcoin passing above $80,000 would be significant, while Michael van de Poppe says Bitcoin has “enough room” toward $86,000 and must hold at least $75,000 to maintain momentum.

The same underlying market story is presented with different emphases across the outlets, creating a divergence in how readers are guided to interpret risk and timing.

Cointelegraph foregrounds a near-term bullish setup by saying Bitcoin is “up 8.62% over the past 30 days,” describing “periods where large investors accumulate while smaller investors take profits” and quoting Santiment’s sentiment swing from “extreme pessimism” to “ultra FOMO mode,” while still warning that “overall crypto market sentiment is still lagging.”

Cointelegraph

It also highlights a specific trigger level—Bitcoin passing above $80,000, “a level not seen since Jan. 30”—and it includes a cautionary quote from Santiment that “it will ideally happen when optimism calms down just slightly.”

CoinMarketCap and TradingView, however, lead with a macro-relative weakness narrative, stating that “Bitcoin cae 20% mientras el oro sube 9%” and that “Las criptomonedas rezagadas frente al oro y las acciones” even as 2026 is framed as an opportunity.

In those Spanish-language reports, the emphasis is on the mechanics of accumulation and network activity, including Santiment’s claim that “las ballenas ralentizaron sus compras en la segunda mitad de 2025” and Nansen’s figures that “el volumen de transacciones cayó casi un 30%.”

They also include the cycle framing from CyrilXBT—“posicionamiento clásico de fin de ciclo antes de un cambio”—which is absent from Cointelegraph’s framing, while Cointelegraph instead includes MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe’s explicit levels of “$86,000” and “$75,000.”

Even within Cointelegraph, the report’s institutional angle is tied to a “BlackRock drives 7-day Bitcoin ETF inflow streak” reference, while the Spanish-language pieces instead foreground the rotation story via Garrett Jin’s “short squeeze en los metales” comments.

Taken together, the outlets present the same market as both a sentiment-and-threshold-driven move toward $80,000 and a relative-lag story against gold and equities, with 2026 positioned as the horizon for potential catch-up.