Scaramucci says BTC's 4-year cycle still in play, forecasts rise in Q4
Key Takeaways
- Scaramucci says BTC's four-year cycle remains in play.
- ETF inflows muted the cycle, cushioning Bitcoin volatility, according to Scaramucci.
- Bear market explained by cycle and long-term holders selling near $100,000, Scaramucci says.
Cycle explains current bear market
SkyBridge managing partner Anthony Scaramucci says Bitcoin remains in a four-year market cycle, with long-term holders selling around the $100,000 psychological level contributing to the bear market.
“The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle and long-term BTC holders selling at the $100,000 psychological level, according to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm”
He notes that institutional investors and BTC exchange-traded fund inflows have muted volatility, but these altered dynamics have not erased the cycle.
Forecasts for late-2026 rebound
Scaramucci expects continued choppy price action through most of 2026, with prices turning higher in Q4 as a new bull market begins.
He notes that markets had expected Bitcoin to reach about $150,000 in 2025, driven by Donald Trump's pro-crypto agenda and a warmer regulatory stance, but the October market crash, which dragged BTC from about $126,000 to a low of $60,000, shattered that consensus.
Macro shocks test cycle validity
The industry remains divided on whether the four-year cycle still applies after Bitcoin finished 2025 in the red, with some arguing that changing market dynamics have permanently altered how BTC moves.
“The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle and long-term BTC holders selling at the $100,000 psychological level, according to Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm”
The article points to external shocks, including the war in Iran widening risk-off pressures, as BTC dipped below $69,000 while the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% and traded below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months.
Some analysts warn of a potential 50% drop in BTC in 2026 if BTC continues to correlate with equities.
The piece closes with a magazine headline: 'The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen.'
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