The war in Iran, breeding ground for a new oil shock?

Financial markets are closely watching the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and paying attention to the many statements from Donald Trump.

“Financial markets The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is being closely watched by the financial markets, which are also attentive to the many statements from Donald Trump”

Lesechos

The war in Iran is “almost over,” was the strong message delivered by Donald Trump at his first press conference in Florida since the start of hostilities against the Tehran regime, a message likely aimed at financial markets worried about a prolonged conflict in a major oil and gas producing region.

Investors reacted as quickly on the downside as they had on the upside: on Monday morning oil prices boiled over, with a barrel of Brent approaching $120, only to drop below $90 that same evening after the U.S. president’s speech.

Weapons continue to fire across the region even as leaders trade declarations.

The article reports that weapons are still firing in Iran, in Lebanon and in other countries targeted by Iranian reprisals.

“Financial markets The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is being closely watched by the financial markets, which are also attentive to the many statements from Donald Trump”

Lesechos

On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said at a Pentagon press conference that strikes were intensifying: “Today will, again, be the most intense day of strikes on Iran” since the start of the war on February 28, and he listed “The largest number of fighter jets, bombers, strikes.”

The day before, the Pentagon wrote on X: “We are only beginning the fight.”

Iran’s foreign minister asserted that his country was ready to fight “as long as necessary” against the United States and Israel and said that negotiations with Washington “are no longer on the agenda.”

“Financial markets The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is being closely watched by the financial markets, which are also attentive to the many statements from Donald Trump”

Lesechos

A spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guards warned they “will not allow” exports of oil produced in the region to countries allied with the United States and Israel as long as the war in the Middle East continues.

The spokesperson added that “their efforts to reduce and control the price of oil and gas will be temporary and in vain. In wartime, trade depends on regional security.”

The article notes that so far these statements have not had a direct impact on oil markets.

The conflict is already producing energy-price spillovers and broader economic risks that worry central banks and markets.

The piece describes repeated oil shocks: pump prices have surged and sectors such as agriculture, transport, chemicals and aviation are sensitive to higher fuel costs, with several airlines announcing fare increases and Kuwait facing production cuts due to Iranian strikes.

“Financial markets The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is being closely watched by the financial markets, which are also attentive to the many statements from Donald Trump”

Lesechos

John Plassard, strategist at Cité Gestion, warns that “Historically, oil shocks have led to an acceleration in consumer prices, with a lag of a few quarters, which today feeds central banks’ vigilance,” and he cautions that central banks face “a delicate dilemma between supporting growth and fighting imported inflation.”

Plassard also says markets erred in 2022 by treating the energy shock as temporary before markets overheated in 2023–2024 and that “A prolonged energy shock never confines itself to the fuel bill; it spreads into wages, into margins and into monetary policy.”

The article adds an editorial note that such shocks can spread into voter discontent, which is a significant point for President Donald Trump with midterm elections approaching, and concludes with the observation that ending a war “takes two.”