UC Berkeley–Los Angeles Times Poll Shows Karen Bass, Nithya Raman, Spencer Pratt Locked In Tight Race

Los Angeles’ mayoral race is hanging on a knife’s edge with Mayor Karen Bass at 26%, Nithya Raman at 25%, and Spencer Pratt at 22% among likely voters in a UC Berkeley–Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

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Los Angeles Times

The poll described Bass’s lead as statistically insignificant, with Mark DiCamillo of the Berkeley IGS polls saying, "It’s going to boil down to turnout," as the three candidates remain within the margin of error.

Los Angeles Times

The Los Angeles Times reported the poll surveyed 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters, and found the margin of error was around 3% in either direction.

The New York Post said Far-left Councilwoman Nithya Raman, who announced her late entry into the race, was sitting at 25% while Bass had seen slight stagnation since the previous poll at 26%, and Pratt was gaining traction after entering following the loss of his home in the deadly Palisades Fire in January 2025.

The Intercept framed the contest as a crowded nonpartisan primary where Huang, Raman, and 11 other candidates vie for second place behind Bass, with the top two advancing to a runoff in November unless someone gets over 50 percent of the vote.

The Intercept reported that Rae Huang and Nithya Raman are both Democratic Socialists of America members, but local West Coast leftists are divided over whether to vote for Raman as a pragmatic choice to stop Spencer Pratt from reaching November or to vote for Huang as a matter of ideological purity.

Leslie Chang, a Raman supporter and co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America–Los Angeles, said, "if it comes at the cost of everyday people being able to live a better life, that’s not something I have sympathy for," describing the tradeoff her side sees.

New York Post

Huang supporters argued that Raman’s platform offers little daylight from Bass, and Michael Burns, a writer and performer who mailed in his vote for Huang, said, "Those who consider themselves progressive, or even on the left, have kind of gone into retreat and not let themselves imagine a better political future."

The Intercept also reported that the local chapter has not endorsed either candidate, and that Raman’s three DSA colleagues on the City Council endorsed Bass.

It added that Pratt has built a campaign attacking Bass’s handling of the Pacific Palisades fire and that Pratt’s candidacy has fractured the city’s already divided left.

The Los Angeles Times said the poll showed a head-to-head runoff between Bass and Raman where the councilmember would lead 32% to 28% among the city’s registered voters, while a quarter of likely voters say they would choose neither or would not vote and 15% were undecided.

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In the same poll, the Los Angeles Times reported that Pratt would face a steeper climb in potential November runoff scenarios, with DiCamillo saying Pratt is generating enthusiasm but "he trails by double digits to Raman and Bass in a runoff."

The New York Post reported that Mark DiCamillo said turnout would likely determine which candidates advance, and it quoted Matt Klink saying, "It highlights a race that is still very much up for grabs," with the incumbent, Mayor Bass, "has lost altitude."

The Intercept described how Pratt’s campaign has attacked Bass’s handling of the Pacific Palisades fire and how Pratt has called unhoused people drug-addicted “zombies,” while also arguing LA’s housing crisis should be solved with police force.

Across the coverage, the stakes are tied to who reaches November: the Intercept said the top two advance to a runoff unless someone gets over 50 percent, while the Los Angeles Times reported that 10% of voters were still undecided in the latest poll, down from 26% in March.