United States' and Israel's military campaign in Iran breaks global humanitarian aid networks

The United States’ and Israel’s opening week of military operations against Iran precipitated an immediate energy shock that directly inflated the costs of humanitarian response.

“The conflict in the Middle East could soon show up on your grocery bills”

Asian Pacific Post

As the Council notes, “As the United States’ and Israel’s first week of war with Iran unfolded, crude oil prices spiked dramatically,” with Brent surging into triple digits and volatility persisting; consumer-facing outlets recorded sharp fuel price jumps—“They’ve taken gasoline prices with them,” reported The Morning Call, while ConsumerAffairs warned “Gasoline and diesel prices are climbing sharply, pushing up transportation costs across the economy.”

Baltic News Network

International institutions moved to blunt the shock: ConsumerAffairs reported that “The International Energy Agency’s decision to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles may offer some eventual relief,” but the immediate effect has been higher operating costs for aid groups that rely on fuel for generators, transport, and logistics, a dynamic the Council summarized as: “For humanitarian organizations, these increases translate directly into higher operating costs at every step, including efforts like transporting medicines by road and running diesel generators in health clinics.”

The campaign has already fractured regional humanitarian systems, driving waves of displacement that strain shelters, supplies and cross-border assistance.

The Council documents rapid internal movement in Lebanon after Israeli evacuation orders and strikes—“the Israeli military’s evacuation orders for parts of southern Lebanon last week, along with subsequent Israeli air strikes across southern Beirut suburbs, have triggered a rapid and dramatic displacement across the country, according to the IOM,” and UNHCR “now estimates close to seven hundred thousand people have been displaced in Lebanon.”

CNBC

The same Council reporting describes Gaza’s acute shortages after border closures: “Following Israel’s closure of all border crossings into Gaza, aid stocks have been depleted, causing price surges,” and “the United Nations can now bring in only half the fuel needed to sustain basic operations in the enclave.”

Shipping and commercial transit disruptions amplify these bottlenecks: CSIS reports that “The United States has struck Iran’s mine-laying ships and put forward the possibility of military escorts to facilitate trade through the strait, although thus far the U.S. Navy has declined near-daily requests from commercial operators,” a dynamic that complicates relief convoys and commercial supply flows alike.

One of the clearest breaks in aid and commercial networks comes from disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which is central to oil, LNG and fertilizer flows that underpin food production worldwide.

“The Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices”

CNBC

CSIS warned that after strikes and counterstrikes “the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed, squeezing a critical chokepoint in global oil, natural gas, and fertilizer trade,” and that the corridor “supports 20 percent of global LNG exports and 20–30 percent of global fertilizer exports, including 35 percent of global urea exports.”

DW emphasized the Gulf’s fertilizer role too, noting that “Gulf nations account for 20% of global traded volumes of key fertilizers such as ammonia, phosphates and sulfur” and that fertilizer prices “have risen 10 to 30%” since the conflict began.

Other outlets give different concentration estimates: the Asian Pacific Post states “about 30 per cent of global chemical fertilizers move through that corridor each year,” while Intellectia AI reports the war “has largely halted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting over a third of global fertilizer trade.”

These differing figures signify genuine uncertainty among analysts about exact exposure, but all sources converge that the strait’s closure threatens fertilizer availability and therefore planting and harvest prospects worldwide.

Higher energy and fertilizer costs are translating into broader food-price and macroeconomic risks that will hit low-income and import-dependent countries hardest.

The Morning Call relayed IMF modelling that “Every 10% increase in oil prices — provided they persist for most of the year — will push up global inflation by 0.4 percentage points,” while DW connected fuel and fertilizer price rises to farming and transport costs—“Every stage of food production is now exposed to surging energy prices.”

Council

CNBC highlighted who is most exposed: “Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region,” noting that large parts of the region rely on imported fertilizer and could face reduced yields if farmers cut applications.

The Asian Pacific Post illustrated the potential consumer impact at national level: “If diesel were to spike 25 per cent under a prolonged Iran conflict scenario, the effect on food inflation could be noticeable,” signaling how these upstream disruptions cascade into grocery bills and national inflation statistics.

The operational and financial fractures in global aid networks are also political and institutional: funding bottlenecks, weakened agencies, and contested maritime security make it harder for relief actors to respond.

“Sam Vigersky is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations”

Council

The Council asks whether Washington will release “the $5.5 billion that Congress recently appropriated to the WFP, UNHCR, and NGOs working to mitigate a global disaster,” noting that U.S. support has been eroded after “Last year, the Trump administration cut 60 percent of U.S. funding for UNHCR and fired nearly all experts in the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Migration, and Refugees,” leaving response capacity weaker.

CSIS

CSIS documents the maritime security dilemma—military action and hesitancy to provide escorts have left commercial operators exposed, with the U.S. Navy declining “near-daily requests from commercial operators”—while Interfax-Ukraine underscores how distant conflicts ripple into already strained logistics systems: “Ukrainian logistics has been operating in a war zone for four years now… Events thousands of kilometers away from Ukraine can determine the price of gas, fertilizers, and, ultimately, bread on every family's table.”

Together these factors show how the U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran has not only raised costs and closed sea lanes, but also exacerbated funding shortfalls and operational constraints that threaten to leave millions without timely humanitarian aid.