US heading for a recession following Iran war? Odds spike as conflict expands
Key Takeaways
- Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, raising U.S. recession odds
- Prediction markets increasingly price in a U.S. economic slowdown
- Higher fuel costs threaten consumer spending, business activity, and inflation
Markets and energy risks
Global stock markets fell sharply as the conflict spread.
“US heading for a recession following Iran war”
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell about 5 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped nearly 5 percent compared with a week earlier.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell Monday morning.
Economists and officials warned of broader economic risks.
Sustained high oil could spread inflation across shipping, manufacturing and transport, weaken growth as consumers and businesses cut spending, and disrupt the Federal Reserve's plans to cut rates.
Chatham House economist Neil Shearing noted risks to goods exports from the Middle East while also saying the U.S. may be less vulnerable because it produces more domestic energy.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer urged releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilise prices.
The article attributes several claims to Newsweek and CNBC and does not specify which actors carried out the strikes that triggered the initial price surge, a detail it leaves unclear.
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