Voters In Wales Vote In Senedd Election As Labour Faces Historic Defeat

Voters went to the polls in Wales for a historic Senedd election that could end Labour’s 27-year-long rule in the country, with voting underway as the party faced a forecast historic defeat.

“- Published Labour is expected to lose the Senedd election, multiple party sources have told the BBC, ending its 27-year-long rule in Wales”

BBC

The BBC said Labour is expected to lose the Senedd after a century of winning elections in Wales, with voting closed at 22:00 BST on Thursday and counting taking place on Friday.

BBC

The Nation.Cymru report said the final YouGov poll published on Tuesday forecast Plaid Cymru to win 43 seats in the Senedd, pulling ahead of Reform with 34 seats and Labour with 12.

Nation.Cymru added that a total of 49 seats is required for a majority in the Senedd and that most voters would head to their polling station between 7am and 10pm on Thursday.

The BBC reported that First Minister Eluned Morgan’s seat is thought to be under threat, with sources speculating the Welsh Labour leader may not return to the Senedd.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage told supporters in Merthyr Tydfil that the rally was his last big speech before Thursday’s Welsh Senedd vote, and the Guardian described Reform as the first rightwing party with a shot at winning in Wales since the 1850s.

The Guardian quoted Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas saying, "A coalition of losers blocking the biggest party [Reform] will backfire, if that’s what happens," as he argued the people of Wales would be determined next time around to make sure the biggest party wins.

Counterfire

In the BBC’s account of the campaign, Welsh Labour’s deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies said it had been "tough" for his party, while Labour sources told BBC Wales that the prime minister came up negatively with voters on doorsteps.

The BBC also reported that Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake told BBC Newsnight he thinks his party will have a "very good result" and said, "I think so. It's going to be a very close election."

The Guardian said Eluned Morgan tried to distance Welsh Labour from UK Labour during her campaign, urging people not to use the election as a protest vote against Sir Keir Starmer.

The YouGov final MRP projection for the 2026 Senedd election for ITV Cymru Wales placed Rhun ap Iorwerth in pole position to be the next first minister, with a central projection of 43 seats for Plaid Cymru and Reform UK on 34 seats.

“Voters go to the polls in Wales as Labour forecast historic defeat Voting is underway in a historic Senedd election that could spell disaster for Labour”

Nation.Cymru

YouGov said Labour’s vote share is projected to fall to just 12%, down 24 points on the 2021 election, and that Plaid Cymru will likely require Labour for a majority with the two parties together crossing the threshold of 49 seats in 89% of simulations.

The BBC reported that a former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if the results were "as bad as predicted" then UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as prime minister.

BBC coverage also said no party is likely to reach a majority of 49 of the 96 Senedd seats under Wales’ new proportional voting system, while Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas said on Tuesday that he thought it was possible for his party to achieve it.

With voting closed at 22:00 BST on Thursday and counting on Friday, the BBC said the election’s outcome would have political significance of historic proportions, ending Labour’s 27-year-long rule in Wales.