Wary allies show there's no quick fix to Trump's Iran crisis

US President Donald Trump suggested that failing to secure the Strait of Hormuz would be very bad for the future of Nato.

“Throughout his two terms in office, US President Donald Trump has not been shy to criticise – even to attack – Washington's Nato allies”

BBC

Gen Sir Nick Carter, former chief of the Defence Staff, told the BBC that Nato was created as a defensive alliance and not for a single ally to initiate a war of choice and then oblige everybody else to follow.

BBC

There is irony in the remarks given that Trump had only two months ago been making strident claims about Greenland, the sovereign territory of a fellow Nato member.

Germany's government spokesman said the war with Iran had nothing to do with Nato, while Defence Minister Boris Pistorius asked what a handful of European frigates that the powerful US navy cannot do.

This is not our war; we have not started it.

There is an urgent, growing need for a solution to the Gulf crisis.

Iran's effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, except for a handful of vessels carrying its own oil to allies like India and China, has left Western governments scrambling to find a solution.

It may be a crisis triggered by Trump's decision to go to war, but it is one that needs to be fixed quickly, before the impacts on the global economy get any worse.

BBC

At his news conference on Monday, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said conversations aimed at working out a viable plan were ongoing with the US, European and Gulf partners, but that we are not at the point of decisions yet.

The Prime Minister referred to autonomous mine-hunting systems that were already in the region.

With HMS Middleton, a mine countermeasures vessel back in Portsmouth for major maintenance, this is the first time in decades when no British mine-clearing ship is in the region.

The Royal Navy is expected to offer newly developed seaborne drones designed to detect and neutralise mines without putting crews at risk.

But one of the problems Trump is wrestling with is that minesweeping, once a core function of almost all navies, has long since ceased to be a top priority.

Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, said the latest British technologies had yet to be tested in combat.

“Throughout his two terms in office, US President Donald Trump has not been shy to criticise – even to attack – Washington's Nato allies”

BBC

We would probably find out in the next few weeks whether or not it works, he said.

Gen Carter said the last time Western nations carried out a major de-mining operation at sea was in 1991, after Iraq mined the waters off Kuwait to prevent an amphibious landing in the first Gulf War.

It took fifty-one days to clear the mines.

No navy has invested in this at the scale that they should have, least of all the Americans.

The US navy's Avenger-class minesweepers, built with wooden hulls to avoid triggering magnetic naval mines, are being withdrawn and replaced by Independence-class littoral combat ships that use unmanned systems.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard is capable of using armed fast boats, naval 'suicide' drones and shore-based missiles to disrupt shipping.

Recent pictures released by Iran's Fars News Agency appeared to show large numbers of boats and drones stored in underground tunnels, suggesting Tehran has long been preparing for just such a moment.

Trump has suggested that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open might involve attacks on the Iranian coastline.

The US has already targeted mine-laying boats at berth in Iranian ports, but it is hard to see many of Washington's allies being willing to follow suit.

Allies prefer de-escalation as the surest way of unlocking the Strait of Hormuz.

This environment has left allies hesitant, standing outside the door marked 'Iran involvement' and looking nervously at each other.

Sir Keir said the solution needed to involve as many partners as possible but that British military personnel needed reassurances before being deployed on a potentially dangerous mission.

BBC

The very least they deserve is to know that they do so on a legal basis and with a proper thought-through plan.

As things stand, that plan does not exist.

France's Macron is keen to get involved and has said he is trying to put together a coalition to escort vessels and guarantee freedom of navigation, but Catherine Vautrin said there are no immediate plans to send vessels.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there was a clear wish to extend EU naval operations in the Middle East, but ministers declined to extend an existing naval mission in the Red Sea.

The EU's Operation Aspides was launched in 2024 to help meet the threats to shipping posed by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen but has a strength of just three warships, making it relatively modest.

Sharpe warned that an escort operation would be far more complex than Aspides, with threats coming from the air, surface and underwater, and that you cannot always shoot threats before they're fired.

Allies are hesitant to commit, but inaction is not really an option.

Starmer said the solution needed as many partners as possible, but Britain required assurances and there was no plan yet.