Why Trump can't afford to brush off the Iran war's economic impact

U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to downplay the economic effect of the Iran war even as Americans are feeling higher fuel costs.

At a Florida news conference Monday evening he framed the spike in oil and gas prices as a short-term side effect of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

CBC

He said, "In the long run, oil supplies will be dramatically more secure without the threat of Iranian ships, drones, missiles, nuclear menace or anything," and added, "We're putting an end to all of this threat once and for all, and the result will be lower oil prices, oil and gas prices for American families."

Trump also told reporters, "I knew oil prices would go up if I did this, and they've gone up probably less than I thought they'd go up," and told Reuters last week, "They'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."

American drivers are already feeling the impact at the pump: AAA reported a national average price of $3.48 US a gallon on Monday, up 48 cents from the previous Monday.

That weekly increase was even sharper than the 45-cent jump linked to Russia's war against Ukraine in March 2022.

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Dan Cassino, a polling expert and professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey, told CBC News that gas prices are "visceral" for voters and that a visible jump at the pump is immediate evidence of rising living costs for U.S. drivers.

The article says if the Iran war does not end quickly, rising transportation costs could ripple into higher prices for vacations and food.

Experts and political operatives warn elevated gas prices pose a clear political risk for Trump and the Republican Party heading into November's midterms.

Cassino said voters who drive "might not forget it in November even if prices retreat."

Kevin Book, managing director for ClearView Energy Partners, warned the memory of a pump shock can outlast the price spike.

Brittany Martinez, executive director of Principles First, said a prolonged conflict that hits household budgets would make Republican messaging on affordability more difficult.

The article notes Trump's top political advisers have been urging him for months to emphasize economic progress, particularly reining in the cost of living.

The article lays out broader economic risks and mixed messaging from the administration.

Rising transportation costs could push up prices across the economy, and the New York Times reported that Gulf countries supply much of the world's fertilizer, so disrupted shipments could raise food prices worldwide.

CBC

CBC says it's "anything but clear" that the U.S. economy can withstand a sustained increase in energy prices, citing feeble employment last year and inflation that "remains as high as it was when Trump took office."

Administration figures have tried to reassure the public — Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN the worst-case scenario is a spike lasting "weeks rather than months" and said, "We want it back below $3 [US] a gallon and it will be again before too long."

Market strategist Karl Schamotta predicted a likely political moment when Trump declares victory and moves on, calling it a "TACO moment."