
Wintermute’s Hammond Says Crypto Clarity Act Has 30% Chance Of Passing In 2026
Key Takeaways
- Ron Hammond estimates a 30% chance the Clarity Act passes in 2026.
- Banking sector opposition challenges the Clarity Act's passage.
- Negotiations stalled and timelines shifting despite signs of progress.
Clarity Act's 30% Odds
Ron Hammond assessed the Clarity Act's chances at around 30%.
“Crypto Clarity bill has 30% chance of passing this year, Wintermute’s Hammond says Wintermute’s head of policy Ron Hammond pegs chances at 30%, citing political friction, stalled negotiations and shifting timelines despite signs of progress”
Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee with a vote as early as April 20.

The Clarity Act aims to codify how the SEC and CFTC can oversee digital assets.
Hammond's estimate aligns with a Punchbowl survey at 26%.
Passage is seen as a key unlock for institutional adoption.
Bank Opposition
Bank opposition is centered on whether stablecoins should offer yield.
Attempts to find a solution have failed because banks refuse to give way.

A proposed yield deal failed to satisfy either side.
Some lawmakers who accepted crypto funding are navigating a difficult balancing act.
Trump’s crypto-related dealings could complicate Democratic support.
Wintermute's U.S. Expansion
Wintermute is one of the largest crypto market makers globally.
“Crypto Clarity bill has 30% chance of passing this year, Wintermute’s Hammond says Wintermute’s head of policy Ron Hammond pegs chances at 30%, citing political friction, stalled negotiations and shifting timelines despite signs of progress”
The firm is expanding its U.S. footprint and growing its New York team.
This reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market.
Wintermute has expanded operations since the election.
Passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.
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