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Bitcoin's Cautious Rally
Bitcoin's price rallied almost 7% since Sunday but stalled near $72,000 as institutional conviction remained weak.
“Institutions' bitcoin positioning lacks conviction; CPI, Iran talks might help Institutions are betting on the bitcoin price hitting $80,000 through call options, but they are also buying downside protection”
Institutions continued to chase upside via call options, with demand for IBIT $45 call expiring in May.
The $80,000 call emerged as the most popular bet on Deribit.
Demand for puts, which offer downside protection, persisted.
QCP Capital noted sustained open interest in the May 45 call while downside hedging remained in place.
Maxime Seiler told CoinDesk the skew picture is clear: institutions are buying downside protection and selling upside calls.
Inflation and Geopolitical Risks
The U.S. CPI for March was expected to show a marked increase in annualized inflation to well over 3%.
Markets faced volatility if the core figure blew past the annualized 2.7% estimate.
The weekend meeting between Iranian and U.S. delegates in Pakistan held the key to financial market stability.
BTC's rally was expected to accelerate if they found a way to end the war.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 2.2% to $100.04 per barrel.
Brent crude futures added 1.7% at $97.59 per barrel.
Options Expiry and Market Sentiment
More than $2.3 billion in options were set to expire on Friday.
Coinglass data showed 98,516 traders were liquidated for $306.60 million.
SoSoValue data showed net outflows of $124.6 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Trader notes highlighted Bitcoin's struggle around the $72,000 level.
The MOVE index popped in March, rising to 115% from 73%.
It dropped back to 74% this month, signaling calm in the bond market.
AlphaPepe Presale Launch
The AlphaPepe presale launched its Stage 11 at $0.01367.
It targeted a 10,000% return as markets reacted to CPI, MSBT, and the Iran ceasefire.
Over $780,000 had been raised from 7,300 holders.
100 new wallets were entering daily.
AlphaSwap was generating real trading fee revenue.
The project had completed a 10/10 BlockSAFU audit.
