WMO Warns Record-Breaking Temperatures Likely From 2026 To 2030, With El Niño

The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that the next five years are likely to bring record-breaking temperatures, with a 75% chance that the global average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

“A series of record-breaking years is "almost certain" by 2030 as the climate crisis continues to worsen, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned”

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The WMO report also said there is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the 1.5-degree threshold, and it projected annual global temperatures to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the late 1800s levels.

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In the same outlook, the WMO warned of a strong El Nino event that could exacerbate global warming and potentially make 2027 a record-breaking year, while forecasting an overheating Arctic that could warm nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell emphasized that global efforts to combat climate change are not keeping pace with rising temperatures, pointing to severe human and economic impacts of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms, floods, and droughts.

The report’s framing ties the risk of extreme heat to continued burning of fossil fuels, which it said contributes to extreme weather events like floods, droughts, and heat waves.

Multiple outlets tied the WMO’s forecast to El Nino, with Irish Examiner quoting Simon Stiell saying: “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic.”

The Irish Examiner also reported that the WMO report predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded, and it said the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027 with an El Nino event expected later this year.

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In the WMO outlook relayed by iHeart, the agency projected a strong El Nino event that could potentially make 2027 a record-breaking year, while forecasting the Arctic warming rate at 3.5 times faster than the global average.

Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

The WMO’s Paris Agreement context was reiterated in the same coverage, with the Paris threshold described as 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and the warning that achieving it is now unlikely.

The WMO outlook described regional impacts alongside the temperature probabilities, including a forecast of dangerous drought with potential wildfires in the Amazon and changes attributed to continued fossil-fuel burning.

“The odds of a new global temperature record being set within the next five years have increased further, as the return of the El Niño weather pattern could make 2027 the hottest year ever, the UN’s weather agency has warned”

Climate Home News

The Irish Examiner said the report predicts the next five winters in the Arctic are set to be 2.8C above recent averages, and it described the region as heating up more than three times faster than the global average.

In the same WMO framing, the report also projected rainfall shifts, with northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia likely to be wetter than usual from May to September over the next five years, while the Amazon is likely to be drier.

Climate Home News added that the WMO said there is a 91% chance that the key 1.5C warming threshold will be temporarily exceeded again for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

The stakes were summarized by Climate Home News through Bill Hare, CEO and senior scientist at Climate Analytics, who said the warning “is a result of governments' historical failures to cut greenhouse gas emissions at sufficient scale” and argued this increases the need for investment in adaptation and raises “loss and damage” facing climate-vulnerable nations.