Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain

The war with Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest?

“Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The war with Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest”

Associated Press

A surge in oil prices points to what may be Iran’s most effective weapon and the United States’ biggest vulnerability in continuing the campaign: damaging the world economy.

Associated Press

U.S. President Donald Trump appears aware of the danger, and as oil jumped to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday he suggested the war would be “short-term,” which helped reassure markets as the price eased to around $90 even as he vowed to keep up the war and the punishment on Iran.

On the other side, Iran has to endure a near-constant stream of American and Israeli airstrikes it can’t defend against, yet it remains in control and continues to launch missiles and drones across the region.

Iran has long warned that if attacked it would retaliate across the Middle East by targeting oil infrastructure that powers Gulf Arab wealth, and it has backed up that threat with barrages of missiles and drones.

The disruption has rattled energy markets and logistics: Qatar was forced to halt its production of natural gas, Bahrain declared its oil operations couldn’t meet their contractual obligations, and producers like Saudi Aramco are affected.

Associated Press

Shipping broadly has stopped in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all oil and natural gas traded passes and up to 30% of world fertilizer exports, after Iranian attacks on several ships prompted companies to stop sending their vessels through the strait.

Civilians and daily life across the region are under strain as a result of the fighting and bombardment.

“Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain Analysis: Iran war becomes a contest of who can take the most pain DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The war with Iran, for all its complexity and global effects, boils down to a single question: Who can take the pain the longest”

Associated Press

The Iranian public, which rose up in nationwide protests in January, has stayed home to try to survive heavy bombardment while security forces have been on the street every day to ensure no anti-government demonstrations form.

Gulf Arab states face seemingly unending and occasionally fatal Iranian fire that targets oil fields, cities and critical water works, and Israel — while saying it inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s missile program — continues to be targeted by sophisticated Iranian missiles that trigger frequent air-raid sirens, close schools and workplaces, and create a tense atmosphere across the region.

Leadership shifts and nuclear risks complicate any prospect of ending the war: an Israeli airstrike killed 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the war and clerics named his 56-year-old son Mojtaba to the position, elevating him to the rank of an ayatollah.

Iranian Foreign Ministry official Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran holds the upper hand and rejected contacts about a ceasefire, and President Trump has been vague and contradictory about his aims, sometimes sounding like he pushes for overthrowing Iran’s theocracy and other times saying he would stop short.

Associated Press

Iran still has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which it had been enriching up to 60% purity, and the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites in June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, likely burying much of the stockpile in the debris; those sites remain out of the reach of international inspectors.

Analysts warn Mojtaba Khamenei could issue a religious ruling that reverses earlier statements and orders the material used to make a weapon, a scenario both America and Israel do not want to see.