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Auto market shrinks
Ten years ago, a record 17.6 million cars, trucks and SUVs were sold in the U.S., but Bain & Company analysts told CNBC that several signs indicate the market is about to shrink even more by 2040.
“Ten years ago, a record 17”
Bain said falling birth rates, behavioral changes, high car prices and a growing array of alternatives could drive sales down by more than 2 million units by 2040, and partner Mark Gottfredson called it "the perfect storm, isn't it."
Gottfredson said the auto industry historically depended on an annual 1% growth rate that tracks overall population, but he pointed to government statistics showing population growth has slowed and some countries are already seeing declines.
CNBC reported that the U.S. fertility rate in 2025 was about 1.6 births per woman, which Bain said is below the replacement rate of 2.1 cited via the Centers for Disease Control.
Bain also said restrictive immigration policies are expected to last for the next 15 years, cutting historical net migration rates of the past 20 years in half, which could again reach low levels seen in 2019.
Affordability and alternatives
CNBC said affordability is central to the shift, quoting Craig Daitch, founder and president of Telemetry, saying, "The engine behind it is affordability," as new vehicle monthly payments are up 30% over four years.
Daitch added that nearly one in five new vehicles now carries a payment over $1,000 a month, while Bain said half of 16-year-olds today don’t have a driver's license compared with nearly 70% of 16-year-olds between 1966 and 1984.
AutoForecast Solutions expects U.S. new car sales to stay relatively flat at around 16 million through 2033, and Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting, said, "When you look into the future, younger people are more likely to use Uber or Lyft when they're going somewhere."
Bain research also projected that if robotaxis become widely available and affordable in the next 15 years, the share of the licensed population could drop around 2 to 3 percentage points, to 85%, and the number of vehicles per driver could drop from 1.2 to 1.1.
CNBC reported that Gottfredson’s 2040 projections are revisions, with an earlier target of 2030 for volumes dipping below 14 million, changed because autonomous vehicles are taking longer than expected to arrive.
Competition and disruption
CNBC framed the outlook as a future where automakers fiercely compete for a shrinking number of customers, with Bain saying the auto industry’s historic 1% population-linked growth model is being disrupted.
“The Ferrari Luce divides opinions”
Gottfredson told CNBC that the population numbers are “baked in,” saying, "when we get to 2040, we're going to see we're going to see some decline in the U.S."
He added that the decline is even worse in places like Europe and in most of the countries in Asia, and CNBC said the most direct indicator is the rate at which vehicles are "deregistered," when they are taken off the road and either scrapped or exported.
CNBC reported that in 2000 the deregistration rate was about 6%, and as of 2025 it was about 5%, with Gottfredson saying it could fall to 4.4% by 2040.
The CNBC analysis also pointed to a shift in who buys new vehicles, saying buyers 55 and older account for nearly half of all new registrations and have held the largest share for eight straight quarters.
