Behind the Curtain: Trump's escalation trap

For five years in office, President Trump has operated with intuition, impulse and improvisation.

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The Iran war, now entering Week 3, is the first time Trump's style has made it impossible for him to easily talk or improvise his way out.

Trump could wind up trapped between his caprice and the realities of war.

He expects a quick, clear victory.

But unlike tariffs that can be swiftly imposed and rescinded, the war's outcome is beyond unilateral control and quick fixes.

And Iran gets a say.

A senior Trump administration official practically admitted as much, telling Axios' Marc Caputo: "The Iranians fcking around with the Strait makes [Trump] more dug in."

Israel wants regime change in Iran and more dramatic military destruction as it weighs an invasion of Lebanon.

Bibi Netanyahu has shown several times that when it comes to Iran, he has the ability to convince Trump to take his side.

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Iran wants survival — and to prove it can impose pain, militarily and economically, to scare off future attacks.

And other nations want the free flow of oil and commerce through the Middle East's waters and air.

What we're watching: Officials in Washington and capitals around the world are preparing for a much longer crisis.

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Axios' Barak Ravid reports that three sources in the administration and in allied countries believe the instability in the Middle East and U.S. involvement could continue until September, even if the war shifts to a low-intensity conflict.

The Iranians have made it clear in private and in public that even if Trump ends the war, they could continue shooting missiles and rockets until they get guarantees that this is the end of the war, not just a temporary ceasefire.

As Barak reported, the U.S. doesn't have clear enough lines of communication with the Iranian regime to make a deal that's sure to stick.

Trump could pull out tomorrow. But the Iranians could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and push oil prices.

Behind the scenes: Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south.

But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called buyer's remorse — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.

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A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time.

The same source said Trump ended up saying he just wants to do it, highlighting his impulsive push.

He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.

The source said Trump was high on his own supply after last summer's quick strikes in Iran and January's abduction of Nicolás Maduro: He saw multiple decisive quick victories with extraordinary military competence.

Reality check: The U.S. and Israeli air forces have overhead supremacy to bomb at will.

The bottom line: To claim victory, the Iranian regime just needs to stay alive.